Escalation risk is real and acute between Israel, Hezbollah: US official

Ahram Online , Sunday 22 Sep 2024

The risk of escalation is real between Israel and Hezbollah, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Saturday, amid growing concerns in Biden’s administration over an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, Axios reported.

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Jake US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan (C) looks on as US President Joe Biden (R) during the Quadrilateral Summit at the Archmere Academy in Wilmington, Delaware. AFP

 

“The risk of escalation is real. It has been since 7 October. There are moments where it is more acute than others. I think we are in one of those moments where it is more acute,” Sullivan told reporters ahead of Saturday’s Quad summit in Wilmington, Delaware.

He explained that the risk of escalation “stands to reason that Lebanese Hezbollah’s capabilities have taken a hit."

However, he stated that how significant this hit is and how that translates to their ability to represent a threat to Israel is something that needs some more time assessment.

US officials said the Biden administration is extremely concerned about the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, but hopes to use growing Israeli army pressure on Hezbollah to get a diplomatic deal, the Axios news website reported.

The officials said Israel believes putting more pressure on Hezbollah could push the group to agree to a diplomatic deal that would return citizens to northern Israel and southern Lebanon irrespective of the deadlocked negotiations to establish a ceasefire in Gaza.

US officials told Axios they recognize Israel's perspective and agree with it, but stress this is an "extremely difficult calibration" that could easily go out of control and lead to an all-out war.

According to Axios, Sullivan, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Biden advisers Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein held several calls with their Israeli counterparts on Friday and Saturday.

"One of the key messages was that we want to keep a path open to a diplomatic resolution and therefore don't want the Israelis to take steps that will close such a path," a US official said.

However, the officials admit they have limited influence on Israel's military decisions and therefore are focused on reaching an understanding with Israeli leaders about the "escalation dial."

The Biden administration asked Tel Aviv to refrain from actions like a ground invasion or wide-ranging airstrikes in civilian areas that could escalate the conflict to a war and shut down diplomatic efforts, Axios reported citing Israeli and US officials.

On Saturday, The US State Department urged Americans in Lebanon to leave the country while commercial options remain available, as the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah flares.

"Due to the unpredictable nature of the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel and recent explosions throughout Lebanon, including Beirut, the US Embassy urges US citizens to depart Lebanon while commercial options remain available," the State Department said in an updated advisory.

"At this time, commercial flights are available, but at reduced capacity. If the security situation worsens, commercial options to depart may become unavailable," it added.

In late July, the United States raised its travel advisory for Lebanon to its highest "do not travel" classification, after a strike on southern Beirut killed a top Hezbollah commander.

 

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