The damage at the base in Shahroud raises new questions about Israel’s attack early Saturday, particularly as it took place in an area previously unacknowledged by Tehran and involved the Guard, a powerful force in Iran that so far said the damage of the Israeli aggression was "limited."
Iran only has identified Israeli attacks as taking place in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces — not in rural Semnan province where the base is located.
It also potentially further restrains the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran long has relied on that arsenal as it cannot purchase the advanced Western weapons that Israel has armed itself with over the years, particularly from the United States.
Satellite photos earlier analyzed by the AP of two military bases near Tehran also attacked by Israel show that sites there that Iran uses in its ballistic missile manufacturing have been destroyed.
“We don’t know if Iranian production has been crippled as some people are saying or just damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. “We’ve seen enough imagery to show there’s an impact.”
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer questions from the AP but sent a previous statement acknowledging it targeted “missile manufacturing facilities” in the attack.
Shahroud base
High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken for and analyzed by the AP showed the damage at the Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, some 370 kilometres (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Semnan also hosts the Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran’s civilian space program.
The images showed a central, major building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed, the shadow of its still-standing frame seen in the image taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles could be seen gathered around the site, likely from officials inspecting the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the site's main gate nearby.
Three small buildings just to the south of the main structure also appeared to be damaged. Iran has been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar to the northeast of the main building also appeared to have been damaged.
Iran has not acknowledged any attack at Shahroud. However, given the damage done to multiple structures, it suggested the Israeli attack included pinpoint strikes on the base. Low-resolution images since the attack showed signs of damage at the site not seen before the assault — further pointing to Israeli missile strikes as being the culprit.
“We can’t 100% exclude the possibility it’s something else, but it’s almost certain this building got damaged because of an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.
Given that the large building had been surrounded by earthen berms, that suggests it handled high explosives, said Hinz, who long has studied the site. That central site likely deals with solid propellant mixing and casting operations, he added.
Large boxes next to the building likely are missile motor crates as well, Hinz said. Their sizes suggest they could be used for Iran's Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran has claimed can reach Mach 15 — which is 15 times the speed of sound. Both have been used in Iran's attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and the later ground invasion of Lebanon.
“Due to preparedness and vigilance of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces, and timely reaction by the country’s air defence, limited damage was caused to some of the points hit," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a meeting with foreign diplomats Tuesday in Tehran. "Necessary measures were taken immediately to restore the damaged equipment to operational state.”
Guard's space program
A short distance from the destroyed buildings sits a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has conducted a series of successful missions putting satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program in 2020.
The U.S. intelligence community’s 2024 worldwide threat assessment said Iran's continued development of satellite launch vehicles “would shorten the timeline to produce” an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons, if it chooses to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly has warned.
Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes. However, U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up until 2003.
Parchin, one of the two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, saw a building linked to that program destroyed.
But for now, the satellite photos suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of Israel's attack.
Iran said Wednesday that there had been "no interruption" in its production of missiles after Israel said its strikes on Iran last week hit missile production facilities.
"There has been no interruption in the process of producing offensive systems such as missiles," Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh told reporters.
* This story was edited by Ahram Online.
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