The Syrian army acknowledged that the armed factions had entered "large parts" of the city of Aleppo and reported the death of dozens of its soldiers in clashes along a front stretching approximately 100 kilometres.
Amid an unprecedented military escalation in the region, many questions arise about the nature of this attack, the reasons behind its timing, and the future of Syria.
Additionally, fears were renewed that the plight of the Syrian people, which has persisted since the outbreak of the war in 2011, may worsen.
Following is an attempt to analyze Syria's turbulent scene after years of relative calm.
What are armed factions involved in the attack?
It is the main force in the attack, an armed Islamic group that was formed in January 2017 following the merger of several jihadist factions. It was previously known as "Jabhat Al-Nusra" before separating from Al-Qaeda in Syria in July 2016.
Ahrar Al-Sham, one of the Syrian opposition factions, was formed through the merger of four Syrian Islamic groups. The movement is based in Idlib and the countryside of Aleppo and Hama.
- The National Front for Liberation
The National Front for Liberation is an armed coalition formed by 11 factions of the Free Syrian Army in 2018.
The Syrian National Army, an alliance of factions supported by Turkey, was formed in 2017. It opposes the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by the Kurds and supported by the United States.
It is believed that several small- and medium-sized factions participated in the attack, such as the Nur Al-Din Al-Zenki Brigades, which is supported by Turkey, and the Jaish Al-Izza, which is led by Major Jamil Al-Saleh, a defector from the Syrian army.
Why now?
Various speculations emerged regarding the reasons behind the armed factions choosing this timing to launch an attack against the Syrian army.
The most prominent among these is that the armed groups took advantage of the power vacuum in Syria and the weakened Syrian army due to the retreat of Iranian forces, the main ally of President Bashar Al-Assad, which have been preoccupied with supporting Hezbollah in its recent fighting with Israel.
The attack coincided with a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which may indicate that these factions aim to impose a new reality in northern Syria by pushing Iran out of the Syrian scene before Iranian forces could reorganize their positions in the country.
Additionally, the militants exploited Russia’s preoccupation, as Al-Assad’s ally, with significant developments in its war with Ukraine. This preoccupation led Russia to hand over some of its military observation points in Syria to Iranian forces, according to a report by Safinaz Mohamed Ahmed, an expert in Arab political affairs at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS).
In response, Iran accused Israel and the United States of being behind the armed factions' attacks in Syria. Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi described the attacks as "an American-Zionist plan following the defeat of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Palestine."
According to the Tasnim News Agency, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Major General Hossein Salami stated that after "strategic defeats" suffered by Israel on the Gaza and Lebanon fronts, "the Takfiri terrorist groups, under the leadership and direction of those defeated in the Gaza and southern Lebanon battlefields, launched new brutal attacks on Syria in recent days."
He also said Israeli airstrikes on Syria led to the death of "Revolutionary Guard commander Hashim Borhashemi (known as Haj Hashim)," who was considered one of the senior Iranian military advisors in Syria.
Netanyahu’s warning
Hours before the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had warned Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad about what he called "playing with fire" by allowing the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah through his territory.
Some observers believe that Israel seeks to establish a buffer zone along the border with Syria in order to push Iranian factions out of the region and cut off supply routes from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The recent series of Israeli strikes on Syria, particularly in Palmyra, is seen as evidence of this.
The United States denied involvement in the Aleppo attack, but the presence of its forces on the ground in Syria, along with its Kurdish allies the SDF, raises questions about the extent of its knowledge of the developments.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby argued that the refusal of Bashar Al-Assad's government "to engage in the political process and its reliance on Russia and Iran created the circumstances that are unfolding now, including the collapse of Syrian army lines in northwest Syria."
"We will also continue to fully defend American personnel and military sites, which remain essential to ensuring that ISIS does not resurge in Syria," he added.
Turkish position
The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the new confrontations in northern Syria have caused an unwanted escalation in the region, emphasizing that it is crucial for Ankara to avoid another state of instability and ensure that civilians are not harmed.
However, considering that Turkey supports some of the groups involved in the attack, some experts see the attacks as a Turkish opportunity to pressure President Al-Assad's government amid the stalled negotiations on the restoration of relations between Ankara and Damascus. Some say it is perhaps trying to impose a new reality on the ground where the Syrian side appears weaker on the negotiation table.
Turkey may also want to impose a new reality that includes extending its influence in Syria as the newly elected US President Donald Trump, known for his strong relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prepares to take office.
Rabah Seif Allam, a researcher on Syrian affairs at the ACPSS, said Turkey may aim to gain control over Aleppo to prepare for the return of Syrian refugees from Turkey to Syria. This is central to the talks between Ankara and Damascus, with Assad insisting on the Turkish withdrawal from northern Syria before any agreement.
Non-surprise attack
Dareen Khalifa, a researcher at the International Crisis Group, said these factions had been preparing for the attack for months.
"They portrayed it as a defensive step against an escalation that the regime intended to carry out," with the Syrian government and its ally Russia intensifying airstrikes on the region prior to the attack, Khalifa told AFP.
She added that Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham and its allies "are also looking at the larger changes on both the regional and geostrategic levels."
The Syrian people: An endless tragedy
The military developments in northwestern Syria, particularly in the city of Aleppo and its western countryside, have driven thousands to a large-scale mass displacement. Syrians fleed to various destinations ranging from neighbourhoods in central Aleppo under the control of the Damascus government to northwestern Idlib on the border with Turkey and other safer areas.
The fighting has led to the displacement of more than 14,000 people, nearly half of whom are children, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Syria.
The UN office added that some families were displaced from Aleppo and Idlib to collective shelters in Hama.
The recent military operations have resulted in the deaths of 277 people, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Most of them were fighters from both sides of the conflict, including 28 civilians, mostly killed in airstrikes by Russian planes supporting the army in the battle.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, more than 300,000 civilians have lost their lives, with millions of internally displaced people and refugees still existing both inside and outside the country.
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