Since the resurgence of Syria's civil war between the legitimate government and extremist Islamist factions, a recurring claim has been that Russia, deeply "entangled" in Ukraine, is unable to provide the same level of support to its Syrian ally as it did between 2011 and 2020.

The critical question now is to what extent Moscow can bolster Damascus amid renewed offensives by armed extremist groups, including those who have taken control of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city.

Many analysts have weighed in on the issue. Some Western-leaning commentators suggest that Russia may be compelled to mobilise its so-called "African Corps," a contingent of Russian forces largely comprising mercenaries, including Wagner Group operatives stationed in Libya, Sudan, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Central African Republic, and Equatorial Guinea, according to a report released Wednesday by the Institute for the Study of War.

The Washington-based institute, which advocates enhancing the United States' ability to conduct military operations and address emerging threats, assessed that while Russia's 'African Corps' could provide advisory and support roles to Syrian forces, it is unlikely to deploy sufficient troops to fundamentally alter the dynamics on the ground. However, the potential involvement of the 'African Corps' in the Syrian conflict is a cause for concern, as it could lead to an escalation of the war.

The report also highlighted potential challenges, stating, 'The Kremlin will likely face capacity and logistical challenges in redeploying adequate African Corps forces to Syria while sustaining its operations across Africa.' This underscores the potential strain on Russia's military capabilities, a factor that could significantly impact its ability to support Syria.

It added, "Africa Corps units are the best-positioned Russian assets to reinforce efforts in Syria". Still, it warned that any scenario in which Syrian rebels topple President Bashar al-Assad would undermine Moscow's strategic ambitions in Africa and surrounding waterways. These include projecting power in the Mediterranean and Red Seas and pressuring NATO's southern flank.

"Russia's operations in Libya and the Sahel are crucial to securing access to the Mediterranean and Red Sea—a strategy heavily reliant on maintaining its naval base in Tartus," the report noted.

In contrast, Dr. Ahmed Al-Khamisi, an Egyptian university professor and journalist specialising in Russian affairs, disputes this perspective.

"Russia is a major global power with a robust industrial base, a population of 140 million, and significant economic resources," Al-Khamisi said.

The scholar, who has authored numerous books on Russian politics and culture, highlighted Moscow's historic resilience, pointing to its decisive victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, which came at the cost of millions of lives. "It is inconceivable that Russia would be defeated in Ukraine or Syria," he added.

"Russia contributes more than a quarter of the global grain market and plays a substantial role in arms exports, especially to countries outside the US sphere of influence. It is among the world's largest energy producers and possesses vast mineral resources," Al-Khamisi explained.

He argued that Russia can aid Syria without compromising its strategic presence in Africa.