Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed delivers his remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba AFP
The $4 billion dam, with a reservoir designed to hold 74 billion cubic metres of water, has been under construction since 2011 on the Blue Nile.
Ethiopia has consistently refused to sign a legally binding agreement on GERD after more than a decade of negotiations with Cairo and Khartoum. Both countries argue that Ethiopia’s unilateral filling and operation of the reservoir could severely reduce water flows, especially during droughts.
Despite this, Ethiopia filled the dam’s reservoir without an agreement with the downstream countries, completing five stages of filling between 2020 and 2024, deepening the crisis.
Last week, Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sweilam and his Sudanese counterpart, Ismat Qureshi, warned that GERD threatens regional stability in the Eastern Nile Basin and violates international law. They stressed that Ethiopia must change its policy to restore cooperation among Nile Basin countries.
In a joint statement, Cairo and Khartoum cited concerns over Ethiopia’s unilateral actions, the dam’s structural safety, and the risks of uncontrolled water releases and poor management during droughts.
Egypt’s attempts to reach an agreement
For over a decade of negotiations, including multiple rounds and proposals, no agreement has been reached on GERD.
In December 2023, Egypt declared that the final round of GERD talks had failed, blaming Addis Ababa for rejecting proposed technical and legal solutions that sought to protect the interests of all three countries, including Ethiopia.
Egypt has repeatedly warned that GERD threatens its water security, calling Ethiopia’s measures a violation of international law, especially the principle of fair and equitable use of shared waterways and the obligation not to harm other countries.
In 2021, then-Irrigation Minister Mohamed Abdel-Ati stated that Egypt had proposed 15 different scenarios for operating the dam, each ensuring it would generate at least 80 percent of its electricity even during severe droughts, but Ethiopia rejected them all.
“Ethiopia does not want an agreement. If it did, Addis Ababa would have signed the Washington agreement last year,” Abdel-Ati said at the time.
The US and the World Bank mediated talks between November 2019 and February 2020, resulting in a draft agreement. Ethiopia, however, skipped the signing session in February, citing “domestic reasons.”
Similar efforts by the African Union also failed over the past decade.
Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile, fears GERD will worsen its already scarce water supply. Sudan is also concerned about the safety of its own dams.
Egypt needs over 90 billion cubic metres of water annually, but its Nile share is only 55.5 billion. Per capita water availability is less than 500 cubic metres a year, far below the UN water poverty threshold of 1,000, according to Egypt’s Foreign Ministry.
In August, President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi stressed that Egypt will never allow its Nile share, vital for 105 million citizens and about 10 million residents, to be compromised.
“Anyone who thinks Egypt will ignore an existential threat to its water security is mistaken. We will continue to monitor the situation and take all measures allowed under international law to protect our people’s resources,” El-Sisi warned.
“We have always supported development in Nile Basin countries, but only when it does not harm the water reaching Egypt,” the president added.
Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty also reaffirmed that Egypt will not give up its historical water rights, calling water security an existential issue and a top national priority.
He stressed that protecting Egypt’s interests does not conflict with the development goals of its neighbours and that Egypt remains committed to cooperation and mutual benefit with all Nile Basin states.
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