The data, collected across multiple countries in 2025 and early 2026, suggest that wars in Gaza and Iran have accelerated a structural shift in how Arab publics perceive global power, legitimacy, and regional leadership.
The findings, analyzed in a recent article published in Foreign Affairs by Amaney A. Jamal and Michael Robbins, point to a broad-based transformation in regional attitudes that goes beyond immediate wartime reactions. Instead, they reflect a deeper reassessment of the United States’ role in the Middle East and of the credibility of the Western-led international order.
The Arab Barometer, a long-running research initiative led by academic institutions including Princeton University, has conducted tens of thousands of interviews across the region since 2006. Its latest wave shows that the Gaza war has become the central lens through which citizens evaluate international actors. As the conflict unfolded—with tens of thousands of casualties, mass displacement, and widespread destruction—public attitudes toward the United States deteriorated sharply.
Across surveyed countries, the United States is now widely viewed as biased and selectively committed to international law. Majorities in several Arab states believe Washington has aligned itself decisively with Israel in the Gaza war, reinforcing perceptions of double standards and weakening its credibility. This perception is not limited to political elites but is deeply rooted in public opinion, cutting across different societies in the region.
The survey findings also point to a broader crisis of legitimacy for Western powers. On key indicators—upholding international law, protecting rights and freedoms, contributing to regional security, and supporting the Palestinian cause—respondents consistently rate the United States and its European allies lower than competing global actors. According to the Foreign Affairs analysis, this perceived inconsistency has driven a significant loss of trust and accelerated a shift in political credibility away from the West.
At the same time, alternative powers are gaining relative ground. China, Russia, and—more unevenly—Iran are increasingly viewed as more credible or less hypocritical actors, even if Arab publics do not fully endorse their policies. The shift is therefore comparative rather than ideological: it reflects dissatisfaction with the United States more than admiration for its rivals.
The ongoing war with Iran is likely to deepen this trend. The conflict, which has expanded into a broader regional confrontation affecting Lebanon and Gulf states, has reinforced perceptions that Washington is pursuing unilateral military strategies with little regard for regional stability. As noted in Foreign Affairs, such developments risk entrenching negative views of U.S. leadership for years to come.
Despite these trends, public opinion in the region remains conditional rather than fixed. The survey shows, for example, that opposition to normalization with Israel remains high but is not absolute. Support for normalization increases significantly if linked to the establishment of a Palestinian state, while backing for a two-state solution remains widespread across multiple countries. This suggests that Arab public opinion continues to be shaped by perceptions of justice, sovereignty, and political resolution rather than by fixed ideological alignments.
The implications extend beyond public sentiment. Arab Barometer researchers note that public opinion plays an increasingly important role in shaping the behavior of governments in the region. Even in political systems with limited democratic participation, leaders remain sensitive to the risk of public unrest. As a result, declining trust in the United States may constrain governments’ ability to openly cooperate with Washington, encouraging them instead to diversify partnerships or reduce the visibility of existing alliances.
At the strategic level, the findings point to a gradual reconfiguration of regional alignments. With confidence in the U.S.-led order declining, Arab states may seek closer economic and security ties with alternative powers or participate more actively in multilateral frameworks outside Western influence. While this shift remains uneven and incomplete, the direction of change is becoming increasingly clear.
Yet the survey also underscores that policy choices can still shape perceptions. The Foreign Affairs analysis highlights that countries adopting positions seen as more balanced on the Palestinian issue—such as France’s recognition of a Palestinian state—have experienced measurable improvements in public opinion. This suggests that credibility in the region is not irretrievably lost but contingent on actions that align with widely held expectations of fairness and consistency.
For the United States, the challenge is therefore both immediate and structural. Restoring its standing will require more than rhetorical adjustments. It will depend on concrete steps to end ongoing conflicts, particularly the war in Iran, and to advance a credible and just resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Without such changes, current trends indicate that Washington risks a sustained decline in influence in a region where public opinion is becoming an increasingly decisive factor in shaping political realities.
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