It started around 10pm last Sunday. Ferocious clashes between rival factions of soldiers in South Sudan.
Juba fears a civil war — though not related to Khartoum this time — between rival ethnic groups that President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, belong to.
Since nothing comes suddenly out of the blue, this dramatic situation is rooted in the ambitions of the two sides to widen their scale of control over a state that came to existence just two years ago.
Several international bids for mediation were forthcoming in the last week, in order to end the disastrous on-the-ground situation in one of the world's poorest, though oil-rich, countries.
But probably none of the involved parties can push to conclusion a deal, at least at the current moment.
'Coup'
The way Kiir appeared in a press conference Monday showed that something different than usual was going on.
Government officials surrounded Kiir as he was wearing military uniform, announcing his success in aborting a "coup" against him after clashes broke out in a barracks close to Juba's city centre and spread across it.
The president blamed soldiers loyal to Machar for starting a fight in the capital. Kiir dismissed Machar from office in July.
"This was followed later by an attack at the SPLA (the Sudan People's Liberation Army, that became South Sudan's army) headquarters near Juba University by a group of soldiers allied to the former vice-president, Dr Riek Machar, and his group. These attacks continued until this morning," he said.
"However, I would like to inform you, at the outset, that your government is in full control of the security situation in Juba," Kiir pointed out, declaring a curfew from 6pm to 6am each night until further notice.
AFP reported that at least 10,000 civilians, including children and women, requested refuge in a UN compound that is part of the UN Mission for South Sudan (UNMISS), while most citizens locked themselves in their homes. The government noted that 10 former ministers were arrested and others, including Machar, were "on the run."
Eric Reeves, a consultant to a number of humanitarian organisation operations in Sudan ahead of the split, told Ahram Online that the already significant problems of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees will become "exponentially greater."
"This is a moment of extreme crisis in the true sense of that word: a military stand-down is essential and the longer it does not occur, the more dangerous an already explosive situation becomes," the Sudanese political researcher warned.
South Sudan Information Minister Michael Lueth told the Associated Press that at least 500 people, mostly soldiers, lost their lives and roughly 700 others were injured during the Sunday clashes. Statements issued by foreign embassies in Juba called their nationals to avoid unnecessary movement.
Still, more political dimensions require examination given that the fighting remains ongoing.
Ethnicity talks
The crisis boils down to this: Kiir belongs to South Sudan's Dinka tribe, and Machar comes from the Nuer tribe. Both tribes have a record of military and verbal warfare against each other.
Last week, President Kiir revealed that some "comrades" were jeopardising the country and trying to take it back to a time of division.
For his part, Machar, who leads a dissident group within the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), accused Kiir of adopting a dictatorial manner, despite having accepted the dismissal decision.
Rebecca Garang, the widow of South Sudan's founding father, John Garang, joined Machar in his claim, being a key SPLM figure. Machar refuted accusations of attempting to topple Kiir and claimed that the latter uses "violence as a pretext to purge any challengers."
Kiir expressed Wednesday his willingness to engage in talks with Machar, but argued that he doesn't know "what the results of the talks will be."
Ironically, Machar called on the SPLM and the SPLA Thursday to overthrow Kiir and accentuated his readiness to join negotiations if based on the president's removal.
"Machar defected from the Garang-led SPLA in 1991 and was joined by others; the defection of troops proved a disaster for the SPLA and ethnic tensions between the Nuer and Dinka, to which Garang and the majority of SPLA leaders belong, were greatly exacerbated," Reeves said.
"Turning southerners against southerners on the basis of ethnicity was Khartoum's most potent weapon in the long civil war," he added.
Then?
Machar told the BBC Sunday that forces fighting the government were under his command and had captured Unity, an oil-rich state on the borders with Sudan that is strategic for South Sudan's economy.
He mentioned his acceptance of joining negotiations with Kiir's government if arrested figures were released and taken to a "neutral country" such as Ethiopia.
On a regional sphere, Uganda's government-owned New Vision newspaper reported the country's deployment of soldiers Friday in Juba, based on the South Sudan government's request. The troops provided support for protection of the airport and the evacuation of Ugandan nationals from Juba.
Several foreign governments have sent emergency flights to transfer nationals out of the unstable country.
An Ethiopian-led meditation team, including ministers from Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti, Somalia, the African Union and the UN proclaimed "productive" talks with Kiir aimed at limiting the conflict.
The president of the UN Security Council, Gerard Araud, said that Kiir and Machar made a commitment to "unconditional dialogue" with the team.
PaanLuel Wël, a South Sudanese blogger based in Juba, said that both camps should "realise and appreciate the obvious." "None of them would militarily defeat the other," Wël said, adding that such a balance of power is an incentive for them to negotiate and support mediation efforts.
The blogger suggested that a "good political deal" could include reinstating Machar as vice president.
"Likewise, Machar, who has a bad track record of rebelling against the SPLM/A and collaborating with Khartoum during the war for southern Sudan liberation — and whose forces committed the Bor Massacre of 1991 — should not try to re-immerse himself in his old political games. He is now a statesman and he should mind about how history will remember him," Wël concluded.
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