Global stocks rise on expectations of Clinton victory

AFP , Wednesday 9 Nov 2016

Global equities markets gained more ground Tuesday on investor expectations that Hillary Clinton would clinch the US presidency after a raucous campaign that had seen stocks seesaw on political developments.

Major US markets posted solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P each gained 0.4 percent, while the tech-rich Nasdaq closed up 0.5 percent. Stocks had retreated somewhat after surging to intraday highs early in the session.

London gained 0.5 percent while Frankfurt and Paris both reversed earlier losses to close slightly higher.

Global investor attitudes in recent days have tracked Clinton's perceived chances in the presidential race over her Republican opponent Donald Trump. Markets fell into turmoil when US authorities a week before the vote announced renewed activity in a criminal investigation into Clinton's emails, but rose Monday, the first trading day after Clinton again received an all-clear from the FBI.

Early gains on US markets Tuesday coincided with the release of preliminary voting data in the key battleground state of Florida that was produced by the new polling group VoteCastr.

Clinton is considered by many investors to be a safer bet than Trump, who is seen as a loose cannon with policies many fear could wreck the world's top economy.

"If all things remain the same, the consensus is we may have a Democratic administration and a Republican House," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

"So it's probably status quo and the market's fine with that. Anything outside of that result will probably cause a lot of turmoil in the market."

Unease remains, however, with maverick tycoon Trump having rallied from a double-digit deficit in some polls to within striking distance of Clinton, while analysts drew parallels with Britain's shock EU exit vote.

Oil markets were also split, with benchmark light, sweet crude up 9 cents a barrel in New York but North Sea Brent down 6 cents in London.

Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said Clinton was "the clear market-favorite" but added, "Of course, this was basically the situation for the Remain camp pre-referendum."

The US dollar firmed slightly against the euro, pound and yen.

John Higgins, of Capital Economics, also said a Trump win "could cause major upheaval."

"Cautious investors adopt a wait-and-see policy as Election Day finally arrives in the United States," said Andy McLevey, head of dealing at stockbroker Interactive Investor.

"Having had their fingers burnt in the aftermath of the UK EU referendum, it is of little surprise many have paused for breath, as despite polls signalling a Hillary Clinton victory seems likely, it is still too close to call and we may see some jitters as the day progresses."

New York - Dow: UP 0.4 percent at 18,332.43 (close)

New York - S&P 500: UP 0.4 percent at 2,139.53 (close)

New York - NASDAQ: UP 0.5 percent at 5,193.49 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 6,843.13 points (close)

Frankfurt - DAX 30: UP 0.2 percent at 10,482.32 points (close)

Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.4 percent at 4,476.89 points (close)

EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.5 percent at 3,023.43 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: FLAT at 17,171.38 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng: UP 0.5 percent at 22,909.47 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,147.89 (close)

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2378 from $1.2397 Monday

Euro/pound: DOWN at 89.03 pence from 89.05 pence

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1020 from $1.1040

Dollar/yen: UP at 105.14 yen from 104.53 yen

Oil - West Texas Intermediate: UP 9 cents at $44.98 per barrel

Oil - Brent North Sea: DOWN 6 cents at $46.09 per barrel

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