Election marathon will be a stark test of the state of democracy in Africa, with Nigeria, Congo, Cameroon, Uganda, Zambia and others set to choose leaders this year and Senegal due to follow suit in early 2012.
A smooth vote in Ivory Coast would not only have helped unify the one-time economic star after its devastating 2002/03 civil war, but set the tone elsewhere at a time when many hope Africa is finally turning the page on its troubled past.
Instead, the struggle for power between incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and rival Alassane Ouattara is reminding African voters how precarious democracy can be, and could encourage disputes over the outcome of other elections.
"If the continent's people came to believe their votes were not what brought to power the leaders they wanted, elections would become meaningless and pave the way for unrest," Kenyan premier Raila Odinga warned as he flew out of Ivory Coast after a failed mediation bid last week.
Defying international pressure to quit, Gbagbo has rejected UN-certified results giving Ouattara a clear victory in a Nov. 28 run-off vote as rigged, and has maintained his grip on the army and much of the revenues from the Ivorian cocoa sector.
Ouattara has rejected Gbagbo's offer of a unity government, insisting any power-sharing accord must accept him as president -- unlike in Kenya and Zimbabwe where incumbents Mwai Kibaki and Robert Mugabe remained in the driving seat after similar rows.
While power-sharing might avert a descent into further political bloodshed, Yarik Turianskyi of the South African Institute of International Affairs said it could also undermine the credibility of the elections themselves.
"Even if you lose the election, you can still be included in the government. This is the third case in recent years after Kenya and Zimbabwe that might start to reinforce the rule."
For presidents aiming to win a new term in power, the best answer is to avoid the need for such messy deals altogether.
Citing the Ivorian debacle, Congo's Joseph Kabila this month rushed through new laws cutting November's presidential election to a single round and abolishing the second-round run-off which features in the Ivory Coast system and others in the region.
Kabila argues the step will avoid the cost and potential for unrest of a protracted two-round vote. Observers note he can now win re-election with barely more than 20 percent of the vote against an opposition which for now remains highly fragmented.
"The crisis in Ivory Coast has definitely influenced the thinking of the ruling coalition," said analyst Jason Stearns.
"In the Congo, the main question for voters is whether they approve of the incumbent. Those who disapprove, but vote for different candidates for other secondary reasons, would probably join together in a two-round election," he noted.
Others say the Ivorian dispute will prompt leaders elsewhere to study how they can avoid a similar fate by exploiting the natural advantages of the incumbent, such as sympathetic state media and a strong say in the details of the electoral process.
In Senegal, opponents of President Abdoulaye Wade argue a decision to redraw electoral boundaries and the way authorities are going about a revision of voter lists could boost his chances of reelection in a vote due around February 2012.
"Technically fraud is not possible," said independent Dakar-based analyst Babacar Justin Ndiaye. "But when you have power you have a lot of means at your disposal," he added.
Landslide reelection wins may create a sense of stability, as in Burkina Faso where Blaise Compaore was returned to power with an overwhelming 80 percent of the vote in November.
But they also foster apathy among voters who wonder what the point of casting their ballot is. Cameroon's Paul Biya is tipped to extend his 28 years in power in a late-2011 poll but domestic observers say its credibility could be marred by a tiny turnout.
Still, the trend in Africa is not irretrievably negative.
Against all the odds, an election in Guinea late last year produced an undisputed winner. If West Africa's regional giant Nigeria pulls off a smooth vote in April, that would also go some way to restoring faith in Africa's democratic credentials.
Some argue the Ivory Coast dispute could still go down as a positive model, for example if economic sanctions force Gbagbo to quit or African leaders back their professions of support for Ouattara with military force to remove Gbagbo.
Gbagbo supporters argue such intervention -- not seen on the cards for now -- would be an affront to national sovereignty.
Others say its message would be salutary.
"If military action is utilised, it will be a strong deterrent to future leaders," noted Turianskyi.
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