Top challenges for Germany's next government

AFP , Sunday 23 Feb 2025

Tough challenges from tricky relations with the administration of US President Donald Trump to reviving a stuttering economy await Germany's next leader after Sunday's election.

Alice Weidel
Co-leader of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and her party's top candidate for Chancellor Alice Weidel speaks on stage during the electoral evening in Berlin, after the first exit polls in the German general elections. AFP

 

Conservative winner Friedrich Merz, who must build a coalition government over coming weeks, has a long to-do list to fullfil his promise of building a "Germany we can be proud of again".

Amid a vote which brought the far-right AfD a record result, Merz has pledged a crackdown on irregular migrants from day one, hoping to win back voters drifting to the anti-immigration party.

Migration and far-right
 

Merz has vowed to rebuild Germany's world standing, but said his first job would be to close the country's borders to undocumented migrants.

A string of deadly attacks have shaken public confidence and Merz has vowed a "zero tolerance" law and order drive and promised to detain rejected asylum seekers awaiting deportation.

Some of his plans may be diluted in lengthy coalition talks that could include the Social Democrats and Greens, but all parties support for tougher rules.

A more radical change would have to be worked out at European level, however, if the next chancellor wants more fundamental changes to the bloc's immigration regime.

Action is seen to be crucial, after the last government gained a reputation for squabbling and failing to get things done.

Fixing the economy 
 

The world's third biggest economy is in the doldrums having recorded its second straight year in recession and with a doubtful outlook.

China is shifting from a major market into a key competitor at a time German big business has struggled with high energy prices and major labour shortages.

Most election candidates agreed Europe's top economy must rebuild its creaking infrastructure, speed up a halting digitalisation drive and slash red tape.

The parties made competing campaign proposals to invest in new technology and get Germany's manufacturing sector going again.

But there are big obstacles, including the threat of trade hostilities with the United States.

Tricky US relations 
 

Since returning to the White House, Trump has rattled allies with threats and executive orders that have sparked fears of worse to come.

His outreach to long-isolated Russia to end the Ukraine war over the heads of Kyiv and Europan states has sparked concern over the future of the NATO alliance.

Germany has been rattled more than most, having built its post-war prosperity under the US-led security umbrella. It has long considered America as its bedrock ally.

But Trump has berated Germany over its trade surplus, defence spending and on cultural issues, while his ally Elon Musk strongly backed Germany's far-right AfD.

Merz has argued Berlin must be a "strong voice" in a united Europe so the bloc can deal confidently with Trump.

Merz, who has a strong business background, has signalled confidence he can make a deal with the mercurial US president whom he has characterised as "predictably unpredictable".

Ukraine and defense 
 

In the Ukraine war, now entering a fourth year, Germany has been Kyiv's second-biggest backer against Russia, behind only the United States.

But Trump upended the US stance with overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin and by labelling Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a "dictator".

Particularly difficult for cautious Germans is the possibility of having to shoulder the burden of keeping the peace in Ukraine after any potential ceasefire.

Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Merz have pushed back any discussion of sending troops to Ukraine, but a decision may become unavoidable.

Just as Berlin wants to keep backing Ukraine's military, it will have to boost its own forces, particularly if the United States is less willing to play an active role on the continent.

Years of underinvestment have left the Bundeswehr in an unenviable state, and the main parties agree that even a recent major spending boost will not be enough to put German forces on a good footing.

Trump has called for European NATO allies to spend five percent of GDP on defence, a figure that is a little rich for politicians in Berlin, who have remained vague on how much is enough.

The sums involved might exceed Germany's strict debt limits, in which case the parties might have to agree a way around them, a step which was hard to conceive until recently.

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