Fitch Solutions has downgraded its projections for Egypt’s real GDP growth for the second time in two months to reach 3 percent in 2021, down from the 3.2 percent that was projected in December.
This came within Fitch Solutions’ MENA macroeconomic update, released on Monday, and shared with Ahram Online, which showed that Egypt was the only country that had witnessed positive growth in 2020, estimated at 3.5 percent.
In December, Fitch Solutions downgraded its economic growth outlook for Egypt to 3.2 percent in 2021, down from the 3.3 percent that was projected in November, expecting the country to achieve four percent economic growth over the next three years.
Unlike the International Monetary Fund’s expectation for Egypt to be the only country to see positive growth in 2021, Fitch Solutions’ insights showed that Egypt is among ten other countries to see positive growth over the year.
Moreover, Egypt is likely to rank among the strongest growth rates regionally, as its economy benefits from a relatively early vaccine roll-out, and activity is boosted by government investment in construction, information and communications technology, and transport projects, in addition to rising export demand from Europe, according to Fitch insights.
It also added that moderate inflation and falling interest rates will further help to facilitate upticks in private investment and consumption.
For MENA, Fitch expected the region’s real GDP growth to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2021, compared with an estimated -4.8 percent in 2020 and a 10-year average of 3.1 percent.
Fitch attributed this to the start of rolling out of vaccines in the region, which will contribute to mitigating the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.