Top European Union banks estimate profits next year would drop to a sixth of 2010's level under a two-year recession, according to expectations they were forced to reveal as part of an industry health check.

The biggest 13 EU banks expect an operating profit of almost 83 billion euros (US$117 billion) next year under their baseline estimates, up from 72 billion in 2010. But estimated profits would crash to 12 billion under the recession scenario.

Profits at HSBC and BNP Paribas would be among the hardest hit by the recession. The estimates were included in a health check of 90 banks by the European Banking Authority released on Friday.

Banks resisted releasing as much data as the EBA wanted, but the regulator said it wanted to give investors as much transparency as possible.

Banks warned the numbers were not profit forecasts, and were based on extrapolating current trends and forced them to estimate loan losses but keep a static balance sheet.