Oil prices are expected to drop down in 2022 to reach $64/bbl, but they expected to recover as of 2023 to record $65/bbl before hitting $75/bbl by 2026, according to Fitch Solutions.
According to its outlook on global oil and gas scene amid the ongoing pandemic crisis and the global trend towards adopting climate action to fight climate change, Fitch Solutions said that the US and China are expected to drive the global demand recovery.
Yet, the continuity of the COVID-19 and the slowdown of vaccines roll out are expected to hinder oil demand in the emerging markets.
Accordingly, Fitch expected 2019 demand levels to return by 2024, while jet fuel will take longer to recover by 2026.
Between 2025-2030 demand growth is projected to average just 875,000b/d, well below historic average of 1.1mnb/d, according to Fitch.
It also added that despite an expected strong recovery over 2021-2022, the aftermath of the coronavirus set to weigh on longer-term demand growth rates, as economic impacts linger, particularly in the emerging markets.
On the supply side, Fitch Solutions said that deep and lasting cuts to spending and lower prices have significantly worsened the supply outlook.
Currently, oil and gas make up about 55 percent of total global energy consumption, according to Fitch Solutions.
On Thursday, OPEC expected global oil demand to recover in the second half of 2021, as it considers reviving its halted output.
It also projected oil consumption to climb by about 5 million b/d –growing by about 5 percent – in the second half of 2021, as the world emerges from the pandemic.