Fitch Ratings lowers global growth projections for 2022 to 5.7%

Doaa A.Moneim , Wednesday 8 Dec 2021

Fitch Ratings has lowered its global GDP growth projections for 2022 by 0.3 percent since its September global economic outlook to 5.7 percent.

Fitch Ratings

In its global economic outlook insights, Fitch said that despite this decrease, this is still the fastest growth rate since 1973 though and far from stagflation.

Fitch has also lessen its global growth forecast for 2022 to 4.2 percent, down from 4.4 percent, which primarily reflects a more intense slowdown in China.

“Concerns over global inflation are rising and the scale and longevity of the global inflation shock has taken most forecasters and central banks by surprise and is bringing forward the start of global monetary policy normalisation. A strong recovery in global aggregate demand in nominal terms over the past year has not been matched by an equal recovery in output”, the report explained.

“Inflation has become a public concern – now amplified by energy price shocks – and inflation expectations have increased. US wage growth now exceeds pre-pandemic rates as the labour supply recovery lags. Stimulus is taking US GDP above pre-pandemic trends and the US output gap will turn positive in 2022”, the report elaborated.

It added that supply bottlenecks led real GDP to expand by less than expected in the third quarter (3Q) of 2021, as inflation being stronger than projected.

On the other hand, the report projected goods prices globally to stabilise in 2022 as spending switches back to services, as strong investment backs goods supply and as fiscal stimulus is unwound.

On the global monetary policy, the report expected the US’s Fed to raise interest rates in September 2022 and the Bank of England (BOE) in December 2021, which is far sooner than Fitch expected previously.

It also touched upon the new Covid-19 variants, noting that they could adversely affect supply and increase prices, implying risks if central banks delay normalisation procedures.

In October, Fitch Ratings maintained Egypt's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at 'B+' with a stable outlook.

Fitch attributed the action to the country’s ongoing fiscal and economic reforms as well as its large economy, which has proven stability and resilience through the pandemic shock.

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