Fitch Solutions raises Egypt GDP growth projection in 2022 by 0.3%, lowers inflation projection by 0.2%

Doaa A.Moneim , Monday 14 Nov 2022

Fitch Solutions has revised up its projections for Egypt’s real GDP growth in 2022 by 0.3 percent to 6.62 percent from 6.59 percent it projected in October, according to its latest update on its monthly MENA Economic Outlook Report.

Fitch Solutions


It was Fitch Solutions fifth-consecutive-month upward revision of Egypt’s real GDP growth in 2022.

Meanwhile, the report lowered its expectations for the country’s inflation rate by 0.2 percent to 13 percent through the end of 2022, down from 13.2 percent for the year, for the first time in four months.

Egypt’s annual headline inflation rose from 15 percent in September to 16.2 percent in October to surpass the previous high point of 15.7 percent mark set in November 2018, the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) announced earlier this month.

On the exchange rate level, the report projected the Egyptian pound to continue to weaken in coming weeks.

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) floated the Egyptian pound in October by over 17 percent in the wake of the two percent (200 bps) interest rates hike it applied to contain the inflationary pressure caused by elevated global inflation and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine.

So far, the CBE hiked the key interest rates by a total of five percent (500 bps) in 2022 since the onset of the Russian war on Ukraine.

The US dollar is currently trading at EGP 24.36 for buy and EGP 24.44 for sell, according to the CBE.

On a regional level, the report expected the World Cup Tournament that Qatar is set to host in November will have a positive impact on MENA’s growth, as its revenues will accelerate Qatar’s GDP growth to 5.2 percent in 2022, up from 1.5 percent in 2021.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to discuss in December its report on the staff-level agreement it reached with Egypt for a new loan worth $3 billion to be disbursed under the Fund’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme.

The new IMF-backed programme is expected to extend over 46 months to help support Egypt’s economic reforms amid the severe impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

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