Egypt's gross debt to reach 92.9% of GDP in 2023, highest record in five years: IMF

Doaa A. Moneim from Washington DC , Wednesday 12 Apr 2023

Egypt's general government gross debt is projected to reach 92.9 percent of GDP in 2023, read a Fiscal Monitor report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This would be the highest ratio since 2018, when it stood at 87.9 percent.


The report showed that the projected gross debt ratio in Egypt is higher than in other emerging markets and developing economies. However, the IMF expects the ratio to decline to 87 percent in 2024 and 78 percent in 2028. 
Egypt is undergoing an IMF Extended Fund Facility, which provides $3 billion in loans through the end of the programme. Egypt is committed to achieving a primary surplus of 1.7 percent of GDP in FY 2022/23, 2.1 percent in FY 2023/24, and 2.3 percent in FY 2024/25 and FY 2025/26, to reduce the gross debt-to-GDP ratio to 83 percent by FY 2026/27. 
The report projected Egypt's general government overall balance to widen in 2023 to 7.6 percent of GDP, up from 5.8 percent in 2022, before reaching 9.2 percent in 2024. However, the ratio is expected to gradually decline thereafter, reaching five percent in 2028. 
The government has pledged to attain a budget deficit of 6.1 percent of GDP and a ceiling on the gross debt of 92.1 percent of GDP by the end of the current fiscal year. The report projected Egypt's general government primary balance to rise in 2023 to 1.6 percent of GDP, the highest since 2014, and to keep improving in 2024 to hit 2.2 percent before slowing down to 2.5 percent by 2028.
The report projected that Egypt's general government revenues would decline to 18.7 percent of GDP in 2023, down from 18.9 percent in 2022, but would restore 2014-2019 levels starting in 2024 to record 19.8 percent and 20.9 percent in 2028.
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