Egypt’s budget deficit widens in 1st 4 months of current FY25/26 to 3.2%

Doaa A.Moneim , Sunday 30 Nov 2025

Egypt’s budget deficit widened in the first four months of the current FY2025/2026 to 3.2 percent of GDP, up from 2.6 percent in the corresponding period of FY2024/2025, while the primary surplus jumped to 1.1 percent of GDP from 0.7 percent in the same period, according to the Financial Monthly Report the Ministry of Finance issued on Sunday.

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The report also highlighted the mounting pressure of the overall debt-to-GDP ratio on public finances, with total debt reaching EGP 12.52 trillion at the end of FY2023/2024, which terminates at the end of June 2024. The report data showed that the scale of domestic and external obligations continues to shape the country’s fiscal outlook and resource allocation.

It noted that domestic public debt amounted to EGP 8.7 trillion and external debt stood at EGP 3.79 trillion, bringing the total public-debt-to-GDP ratio to 89.4 percent by the end of FY2023/2024, which terminates at the end of June 2024. Domestic debt remains the dominant component, accounting for 62.3 percent of GDP, compared to 27.1 percent for external debt.

The composition of the debt portfolio continues to be anchored in domestic borrowing instruments, primarily treasury bills, treasury bonds, and Central Bank of Egypt bonds. The report noted that the average maturity of the budget-sector debt portfolio reached 3.46 years during FY 2023/2024, reflecting ongoing efforts to extend repayment periods and reduce rollover risks.

The figures also confirmed a clear upward trend in domestic borrowing. As per the report data, domestic debt rose from EGP 5.40 trillion to EGP 7.12 trillion across the referenced fiscal periods, underscoring the continued reliance on local financing to cover budget needs.

External debt for the budget sector, totalling EGP 3.79 trillion, remains a substantial part of overall obligations. While domestic instruments continue to dominate the financing structure, the report’s breakdown highlights the significant role of external liabilities in the overall debt profile. As per the report, Egypt’s GDP totalled EGP 14 trillion by the end of FY2023/2024.

The report also highlighted the pressure of interest services that exceeded the total revenues in the first four months of the current FY2025/2026 (July-October 2025) by approximately 104 percent to record 4.3 percent of GDP compared to 4.1 percent for the total revenues at the same period.

The IMF also raised its projections for the financing gap the country will experience in the current FY2025/2026 from $5.2 billion to $8.2 billion. For the upcoming FY2026/2027, the IMF projected this level to almost double, reaching $6.1 billion compared to an estimated $3.2 billion. The fourth review of the EFF programme was primarily completed in March. However, the IMF said in July that it will complete both the fifth and sixth reviews in September.

An IMF mission is anticipated to arrive in Cairo early December to initiate the discussions related to the completion of the fifth and sixth reviews of the EFF, along with the completion of the first review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility $1.3 billion loan programme.

Total revenues in the first four months of the current FY2025/2026 rose by almost 33 percent to record approximately EGP 864 billion, up from EGP 648 billion in the same period of FY2024/2025.

Tax revenues jumped from July to October by approximately 35 percent to post almost EGP 757 billion (about 87.5 percent of the total budget’s revenues). Moreover, the non-tax revenues increased by about 22.5 percent to hit EGP 107.2 billion.

Meanwhile, the report indicated a decline in the overall debt that contracted to 85.6 percent by the end of the FY2024/2025, which ended at the end of June 2025, without giving more details.

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