Gad noted that ongoing reforms and rising capital inflows are restoring predictability and strengthening the outlook for growth and investment.
Ahram Online: How does Standard Chartered assess Egypt’s economic trajectory heading into 2026, particularly regarding growth, inflation, and the exchange rate path?
Mohamed Gad: As we look ahead to 2026, we see Egypt on a firmer and more resilient footing. The combination of continued macroeconomic stability, strong foreign exchange inflows, and substantial investment commitments, particularly from our Gulf partners, is reinforcing confidence in the country’s outlook.
Inflation is already moderating, and we forecast it to average around 11 percent in the current fiscal year 2025/2026, which ends by the end of June 2026, after spending much of this year in the 13–17 percent range.
We also expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to maintain a cautious easing cycle, with a year-end policy rate close to 16 percent. At the same time, we are keeping our 4.5 percent GDP growth forecast for FY2025/2026 unchanged.
AO: Do you expect 2026 to see a stronger rebound in private-sector investment? And what specific reforms or market signals would most effectively unlock new capital flows into Egypt?
MG: We believe 2026 can be a stronger year for private-sector investment, particularly if reform momentum continues. The shift we are seeing toward deeper structural reform, including the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) focus on tighter fiscal management and accelerated privatization, will play a critical role in attracting new capital into the country.
From our perspective, the signals that matter most to investors are clear: sustained macro stability, continued foreign exchange (FX) flexibility, and a transparent regulatory environment.
The combination of these factors with robust FX inflows and significant pledges from regional partners, including new investment commitments from Qatar and Kuwait, is helping reshape sentiment and renew interest in Egypt as an investment destination.
Private-sector participation remains central to Egypt’s growth story, and we expect that to become even more visible in 2026.
AO: Where do you see the biggest opportunities for attracting FDIs to Egypt in 2026, whether in manufacturing, renewables, logistics, or financial services, and what barriers still need addressing?
MG: When we look at opportunities for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2026, we see strong potential in the same sectors we have been actively supporting since entering the market: infrastructure, energy and utilities, financial services, and logistics. These sectors continue to attract interest from global investors, and our own pipeline reflects that.
The launch of our direct custody services in Egypt has also generated significant attention from institutional investors across Asia, the GCC, and Africa, reinforcing Egypt’s position as an investment gateway.
In terms of challenges, the fundamentals are well known; continued progress on structural reforms, enhanced regulatory clarity, and ongoing improvements in ease of doing business will further accelerate FDI inflows. Overall, the direction of travel, especially with privatization and fiscal reform gaining momentum, is encouraging.
AO: Based on your engagement with international clients, how has investor sentiment toward Egypt evolved over the past year, and what are global investors watching most closely before committing new funds?
MG: Investor sentiment towards Egypt has improved noticeably over the past year. The high-yield environment continues to attract carry-trade inflows despite the monetary easing cycle, and the successful FX-convertibility trials have significantly strengthened confidence in the currency.
FX inflows from portfolio investors and official financing have also been an important anchor.
Our discussions with international clients show a clear shift from caution to re-engagement. What they are watching most closely now are the inflation trajectory and monetary policy direction, continued FX flexibility, and credible progress on structural reforms, particularly privatization.
The rebound in remittances and the recovery in exports have also been important in improving overall sentiment.
Put simply, global investors are seeing more reasons to lean in than to stay on the sidelines. The positive sentiment is also anchored by the ongoing recovery in Net Foreign Assets (NFAs), the expected policy-rate normalization from 24 percent to 16 percent between FY2024/2025 and FY2025/2026, and the relative stability of the USD–EGP, which together point to improving external sector fundamentals.
AO: What are the key pillars of Standard Chartered’s strategy for the Egyptian market in 2026, and which sectors or client segments will you prioritize as growth drivers?
MG: Our strategy for the Egyptian market in 2026 builds on the foundations we set when we launched our operations as a wholesale-focused bank.
From the outset, we positioned Standard Chartered Egypt as a corporate and investment banking franchise, concentrating on the institutional segment and leveraging the strength of our global network.
Our priority is serving the four core client groups that define our model: private-sector corporates, government-related entities, financial institutions, and multinational companies.
Sector-wise, we will focus on the areas where we have already created meaningful impact: infrastructure, energy and utilities, and cross-border trade, which are the largest beneficiaries of our financing since entering the market.
At the same time, we see growing opportunities in renewable energy, digital financial services, and fintech, especially as Egypt accelerates its digital transformation agenda and demand for innovative financial solutions increases.
Overall, our 2026 strategy is centred on deepening our presence in these priority sectors, executing strategic high-impact transactions, and continuing to strengthen the commercial and investment links between Egypt and our global network, ensuring that Standard Chartered plays a meaningful role in supporting Egypt’s long-term economic development.
AO: How can banks operating in Egypt, especially international institutions like Standard Chartered, help accelerate capital inflows, support private-sector expansion, and enhance access to long-term financing during 2026?
MG: In 2026, our focus as Standard Chartered Egypt is to channel more global capital into the country, support private-sector expansion, and deepen access to long-term financing for the sectors that matter most to Egypt’s growth.
Operating as a fully licensed foreign bank branch allows us to bring the full strength of our banking franchise into the market, with corporate and investment banking at the core of our strategy.
Our priority is to leverage our global network to attract more institutional and corporate investors into Egypt, especially as FX liquidity improves, inflation moderates, and reform momentum continues to build.
In this environment, international banks like Standard Chartered can play a significant role by connecting global capital with local opportunities, supporting major national and private-sector projects, and enabling companies to scale and compete more effectively.
Our priority is to ensure that Egypt is seamlessly integrated into global markets and well-positioned to capture the next wave of investment and economic growth.
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