In a statement, the ministry said the report presented a distorted picture by focusing on new domestic debt issuances while ignoring repayments, amortizations, and external debt, rendering its analysis "incomplete."
The ministry said the report suggested that Egypt’s local debt was rising sharply in fiscal year 2025/26 without accounting for debt repayments or broader indicators such as the declining debt-to-GDP ratio and improving risk metrics in international markets.
It pointed to what it described as improving investor sentiment, citing a decline in Egypt’s five-year credit default swap (CDS) spreads to below 270 points as of 6 January 2026—the lowest level since 2020. Yields on Egypt’s international bonds have also fallen by 300–400 basis points compared with the same period in 2025, the ministry said.
The finance ministry said it reserves the right to take legal action against the publication of inaccurate data that could mislead the public.
Egypt is targeting a reduction in both public and external debt to bring the overall debt-to-GDP ratio to 40 percent or below by the end of FY 2025/26, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said previously.
The external debt-to-GDP ratio stood at about 44 percent in December 2025, with the government planning to cut external debt by $1–2 billion annually. Officials say the reduction will be driven by tighter fiscal discipline and the expansion of debt-for-investment and debt-for-development swap arrangements.
According to Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk, the budget-sector debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen by more than 11 percentage points over the past two years, with a target of reducing it to below 80 percent by June 2026. Kouchouk said lowering debt servicing costs is essential to create fiscal space for priority spending, adding that any exceptional revenues will continue to be directed solely toward debt reduction.
International lenders have recently echoed a more positive assessment. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Egypt’s stabilization efforts have delivered “important gains,” citing stronger growth, an improving balance of payments, a narrowing current account deficit, resilient remittances and tourism revenues, and solid non-oil export growth. The World Bank has forecast average GDP growth of 4.5 percent between 2025 and 2027.
During the first half of FY 2025/26, government revenues rose by more than 30 percent, outpacing expenditure growth, while tax revenues increased by over 32 percent year-on-year. The period recorded a primary surplus of nearly EGP 383 billion, around 1.8 percent of GDP, compared with 1.3 percent a year earlier, contributing to a budget deficit of about 4.1 percent of GDP.
The second half of the fiscal year typically delivers stronger fiscal performance as tax filing season begins and profit surpluses from state-owned companies and public authorities are transferred to the finance ministry between March and June.
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