When will El-Sisi visit Washington?

Mohamed Elmenshawy , Monday 16 Jun 2014

Since his election victory, commentators have been asking when Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi will visit Washington and under what circumstances

Washington is the most important capital for Egyptian political forces. Washington, which has had reservations about what has happened in Egypt since 3 July in spite of its acceptance of the new reality. Washington, which froze military assistance in a failed attempt to exert pressure on the Egyptian military. Washington, whose President stated that its relationship with Egypt would not return to what it had been before and ordered a comprehensive revision of the mutual relationship. Washington was targeted repeatedly by the Egyptian and other Arab governments to improve the image of the new Egyptian regime.

When president Mohamed Morsi was elected, President Obama phoned him immediately after the result was announced and he also phoned the defeated candidate Ahmed Shafiq. After announcing the last presidential election result, the White House issued a statement that did not express, in the opinion of this writer, American happiness at the result. The statement mentioned that the US is looking forward to working with Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to enhance a strategic partnership and common interests and that Obama intends to talk with El-Sisi in the coming days. 

I think there are only two cases that would allow El-Sisi to visit the American capital:

The first case is if Obama officially invites El-Sisi for a visit. But Obama might not have forgotten that El-Sisi has ignored a number of his requests, which include reconciliation with the Muslim Brotherhood and not to use force to disperse the sit-ins in Rabaa Al-Adawiya and Nahda squares.

The second case is more likely and begins with an American invitation to El-Sisi to attend the US-African Leaders Summit, which will be held in August. However, this visit depends on African standpoints and not on American ones. 

On 5-6 August, Obama will meet with African presidents and kings during a summit, the first of its kind to tackle issues of trade, investment and security in Africa.

Until now the list of those invited does not include Egypt. Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, mentioned when invitations were sent out in January that "Egypt is not among the countries invited to participate in the Africa Summit which will be held next August in Washington due to the suspension of its membership at the African Union after the deposing of former President Mohamed Morsi.”  

Washington can evade embarrassment by waiting for the AU to change its stand before inviting El-Sisi. But this is not certain. Until now, it is not definite that the African Union will invite Egypt since the AU has not yet recognised El-Sisi's election victory because he "is one of those who made undemocratic changes" according to AU criteria. It is well known that the AU sent 45 observers to monitor the presidential election. The next AU summit will be held in Equatorial Guinea later this month and it may review the Egyptian issue.

I think Washington is well aware of El-Sisi's ambiguous relationship with Washington. It started with a severe attack in the Washington Post last August with El-Sisi accusing the Obama administration of ignoring the Egyptian people's will and not providing the needed support amid the threat of civil war. El-Sisi said the USA "left Egyptians alone" in the crisis and "turned its back on Egyptians," adding that "Egyptians will not forget this from America" and he wondered "Will the USA continue to turn its back on the Egyptians?"

Then El-Sisi made an extraordinary visit to Russia amid news of weapons deal with Egypt. When El-Sisi returned he described the relationship with the USA as strategic, stable and steady, adding that he understood the American logic regarding the freezing of the military assistance after the events of 3 July.

"We need the American support in combating terrorism. We need American equipment to use it in combating terrorism," El-Sisi told Reuters.

Washington is well aware that it cannot afford to threaten its relationship with El-Sisi, so it will deal with the new president realistically. This is simply because the US perception of its vital objectives from its relationship with Egypt does not include democracy. However, the president's visit in the Egyptian case has intertwined calculations. One of these is that Washington is the capital president Morsi sought to visit many times but Washington refused.

Washington knew that Morsi wanted to visit for several reasons. A presidential statement was issued mentioning that President Morsi would visit Washington at the end of his visit to New York for the UN General Assembly meetings during September 2012. Then an Egyptian presidential statement said Morsi would visit in December 2012, which also did not take place. Afterwards Morsi himself said to CNN he would visit Washington before the end of March 2013, this also did not materialise. The American administration saw it enough to send indirect messages showing that his visit was unwelcome.


 

 

Short link: