Expansion of war?

Alaa Thabet
Thursday 1 Aug 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has returned from the United States after threatening to launch a harsh war against Lebanon, accusing Lebanese Hezbollah of firing a rocket at the Syrian village of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights.

 

It is unlikely that Netanyahu's accusation against Hezbollah of launching the rocket at the Syrian village, whose residents have lived and suffered under occupation since the 1967 war like the rest of the Arabs in the occupied territories, is genuine.

Netanyahu, who does not care for his war prisoners leaving them under his aircraft bombardment, cannot be concerned about the Arabs of Majdal Shams who live under occupation. Will he fight for the Arab residents of Majdal Shams? This is illogical, except if he aims to expand the occupation, no matter how pointless, or if it is an excuse.

Netanyahu seeks to achieve several goals.

He wanted to secure a decisive victory over all his opponents — something he has been unable to accomplish with the Gaza factions, who possess modest weapons compared to the most advanced and powerful ones that Israel has. 

Palestinian factions manufacture weapons in the workshops of the besieged Gaza Strip, not in American, European, or Israeli factories. 

Netanyahu could not achieve his declared goals even after 10 months of war. He has neither eliminated the armed factions in Gaza nor freed the captives, some of whom were killed in Israeli airstrikes on Gaza.

Moreover, he could not take control of the strip. Despite the horrific mass killings of unarmed Palestinians, with around 40,000 casualties, most of whom are children and women, Netanyahu is under pressure to stop the massacres, end the war, and respond to the outcomes of negotiations held in Cairo and Doha.

However, he knows well that stopping the war without a decisive victory will lead to a severe reckoning.

Therefore, he sees no option but to move forward and ignite a wide-ranging war that the United States will not be able to avoid participating in, leading to its involvement in a quagmire stretching from Yemen, the Arabian Sea shores, and the Strait of Hormuz to Iraq, passing through Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.

Such a broad war will scatter the exhausted American forces, put them to a difficult test, and increase their fatigue as they face escalating confrontations with Russia and China.

The United States is amassing its forces along the broad front with Russia, from Poland, the Baltic states, Germany, Sweden, and Norway, as well as in the South China Sea and its bases in Japan and the Philippines. 

How can the United States cover this vast area and at the same time get involved in a war of attrition against irregular forces in the Middle East, a war whose results cannot be predicted and where victory is difficult to achieve?

The US has exited Iraq and Afghanistan without achieving any results, in a manner more akin to fleeing than to an organized withdrawal. It is trying to restrain Netanyahu and warn him against igniting a wide-ranging war because its consequences will be dire for Israel, the United States, and the entire region.

However, Netanyahu has not responded so far and continues to commit massacres in Gaza, unconcerned about the reputation of his American partner or the fate of the captives, hoping to save himself first. So, will he commit the great folly and ignite the spark of a wide-ranging war?

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