Today, its impact reaches Gaza, the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and northern Israel, and threatens to escalate into an Iranian-Israeli confrontation, dependent largely on Israel's response to Iran’s second strike, dubbed "The Truthful Promise." Should the Israeli response remain restrained, potentially tempered by US and regional mediation, it might limit the scope of escalation.
However, an unchecked Israeli retaliation – one targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure – would disrupt global oil markets, particularly as the world grapples with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Iran’s oil supplies have stabilized the global energy market, especially crucial with winter approaching.
There are also concerns that any escalation may target Iran's strategic nuclear facilities, whether tacitly endorsed by the US or opposed. The US has already supplied Israel with advanced F-35 fighters and strategic ordnance, as seen in recent strikes, such as the recent assassination of Hezbollah's secretary-general and raids on Gaza’s Jabalia camp.
As the conflict endures, assessments emerge from experts calculating losses and gains. Despite the challenges of evaluating an ongoing struggle, one fact stands out: the tremendous sacrifices made by Palestinians. With around 42,000 martyrs and nearly 100,000 wounded, Gaza's steadfast resistance halted plans for forced displacement into Egypt – a plot fiercely opposed by Cairo from the start.
The resilience of Gaza’s people has re-ignited global attention on Palestine, with the issue now prominent on international agendas. Discussions of reconstruction, the Palestinian authority’s stabilization, and advancing a two-state solution now dominate bilateral, international, and multilateral dialogues.
The bravery of Gaza’s people has also spurred unprecedented global solidarity. Across American and European cities, and even within the halls of the US Congress, rallies demand Palestinian self-determination, marking the end of Israel's narrative as a historic victim and breaking down the myth of an oppressed Jewish state.
Today, Israel's indiscriminate actions –targeting civilians across Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon’s southern suburbs – are seen as exceeding all norms, backed by US and Western complicity that shields it from accountability.
Israel's actions now face international legal scrutiny. Recently, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel must end its occupation of Palestinian territories, labelling it as discriminatory and condemning its actions on the ground.
The ICJ asserted Palestinians' right to statehood in the West Bank and Gaza, supporting a two-state solution. The General Assembly, which had sought the ICJ's opinion, followed with a resolution for Palestinian statehood. Key European nations, led by Spain, Ireland, Norway, and Slovenia, have begun recognizing Palestine, signalling that more countries may follow.
In parallel, the ICJ is addressing South Africa's case against Israel, charging it with genocide. Israel's refusal to heed the court’s precautionary orders to cease its actions strengthens the case against it, fulfilling the criteria for genocide: intent, targeting of an ethnic group, and deployment of tactics, like indiscriminate bombing, starvation, and denial of essential resources, including the destruction of vital facilities, such as hospitals, schools, and places of worship. Israel's actions leave little doubt in the eyes of the international community.
Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is poised to issue arrest warrants against Israel’s prime minister and defence minister for war crimes. Despite US pressure, including that from Congress, these proceedings underscore a grave offence against international justice. Undermining the ICC to shield war criminals is itself an injustice, and without upholding international law, it will be impossible to establish a balanced and fair global system.
The Al-Aqsa Flood has re-invigorated efforts towards a Palestinian resolution. Israel has achieved none of its tactical or strategic objectives, as resistance operations in Gaza’s north continue to target Israeli forces despite relentless air raids and incursions. Likewise, Hezbollah, despite losses, repelled Israeli attempts to breach Lebanon’s borders, inflicting casualties of nearly 150 Israeli soldiers.
Nevertheless, the Al-Aqsa Flood has opened diplomatic channels in Lebanon, focusing on implementing UN Resolution 1701. Lebanese President Najib Mikati has signalled readiness for a comprehensive solution, starting with a three-week truce, after which the Lebanese army would deploy along the Blue Line.
However, the primary obstacle remains Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose year-long military campaign in Gaza has failed to dismantle Hamas or secure hostages. Facing these setbacks, Netanyahu has shifted his focus to Hezbollah, aiming to expand the conflict. However, his attempts to provoke Iran into confrontation may be more about drawing the US into direct conflict to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability, fulfilling an old ambition.
Israel’s reckless strategy extends beyond Hamas and Hezbollah, as Netanyahu now stirs tensions with Iran. The anticipated confrontation with Iran poses serious risks to regional security, backed by a hardline government with a Zionist agenda of occupation, mass displacement, and complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program.
Yet, the US faces a dilemma: amid the upcoming elections, President Biden’s administration hesitates to alienate pro-Israel voters. Republican candidate Donald Trump recently escalated this rhetoric, calling on Israel to openly destroy Iran’s nuclear programme.
This intensifying scenario suggests a coordinated Israeli-American plan to dismantle Iran's regional influence, targeting Hamas, Hezbollah, and Shiite militias in Iraq, thereby isolating Iran. If successful, this strategy would pave the way for direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, potentially foreshadowing a larger intervention by a future US administration, as seen with Iraq’s and Libya’s resources. Iran, rich in oil and minerals like Sudan’s Darfur, sits at the centre of this strategic ambition.
The Al-Aqsa Flood has revealed Israel’s strategic vulnerabilities. Without US ammunition, Israel’s war machine would falter, and without American military cover, it would face international condemnation.
This year-long conflict has driven Israel to significant economic losses, lowered its credit rating, disrupted industry, maritime trade, and tourism, and led to unprecedented emigration from Israel. The country has even turned to foreign mercenaries, recruiting asylum seekers and labour migrants to reinforce its forces.
Israel’s society – not only Netanyahu – shares responsibility for decades of oppression against Palestinians, escalating into violence that defies international human rights law and fundamental religious principles, including teachings in the Torah. Israeli investigative committees are now uncovering atrocities committed by their forces against Israeli civilians on 7 October.
When the dust settles, accountability will likely extend to Netanyahu and his circle, who have led Israel and the region into turmoil. Their actions, condemned by Martin Griffiths, UN assistant secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, amount to a "betrayal of humanity."
To achieve justice, the global community must rally around the UN Charter and international law, paving the way for an ethical global order. It is time for the Arab world to take stock of the gains and losses, identifying allies and adversaries who either condemned or enabled atrocities in the region. We must safeguard Arab interests collectively, dismissing empty promises and false alliances.
Ultimately, Netanyahu aimed to commemorate the first anniversary of the Al-Aqsa Flood with triumphant boasts of victory, celebrating the assassinations of Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. However, the strike from Iran shifted the scales, forcing Netanyahu into a defensive posture. Now, as he braces for Israel’s next moves, his response to Iran will define not only his legacy but also the future security of Israel and the entire Middle East.
The Al-Aqsa Flood has fundamentally shifted the balance in the Middle East, marking a clear line between regional resilience and external manipulation. At its core, this movement reflects a deep-seated resistance to occupation and domination – a powerful message that has resonated far beyond Palestine. Arab nations, long divided and hesitant, are witnessing a revival of solidarity with Palestine, recognizing that their security is intertwined with the well-being of their Palestinian brothers and sisters.
In the international arena, this conflict has peeled back the layers of geopolitical influence, spotlighting a global system that often sacrifices justice for expedience. Western nations, particularly the US, are facing growing scrutiny for their unconditional support of Israel despite mounting evidence of human rights abuses. Citizens in these countries, now more informed than ever by uncensored media and social platforms, are increasingly vocal, pressuring their governments to reconsider long-held alliances that ignore the plight of Palestinians.
Economically, the implications are profound. The Al-Aqsa Flood has disrupted key supply routes, impacted global oil prices, and sent shockwaves through trade routes critical to Western and Eastern economies. Countries in the region have begun looking inward, attempting to fortify their economies against the vulnerabilities exposed by this prolonged conflict. Iran, for instance, has strengthened its regional alliances, while Arab states are reconsidering their economic partnerships to mitigate the dependency on Western markets and support from superpowers that often come with political strings attached.
The coming months will be pivotal. Iran’s position remains strong, buttressed by its alliances with non-state actors like Hezbollah and supported by a growing regional sentiment that favours a unified front against perceived Western imperialism. Israel, on the other hand, is politically fractured and economically strained. Netanyahu’s leadership, already under fire domestically, is increasingly seen as unstable and reactionary – traits that may further isolate Israel diplomatically as it faces international condemnation and legal actions from the ICC and ICJ.
For Palestinians, the resilience displayed during the Al-Aqsa Flood has re-kindled hope for a viable, independent state. They have withstood unprecedented hardship and brutality, yet their will to achieve self-determination remains unbroken. This renewed spirit of resistance signals a shift in the Palestinian strategy: no longer seeking mere survival but aiming to dismantle the mechanisms of occupation through unity, resilience, and international solidarity.
As the conflict approaches a critical juncture, global actors – state and non-state – are being forced to reevaluate their stances on Israel and Palestine. The Al-Aqsa Flood has exposed the unsustainable nature of Israel’s approach to the region, forcing allies and adversaries alike to reconsider their roles. This period may very well be remembered as a turning point, where the voices of resistance forced the world to confront uncomfortable truths and, potentially, usher in a new era of accountability, justice, and lasting peace in the Middle East.
The Al-Aqsa Flood has left an indelible mark on the global understanding of the Palestinian struggle, compelling international powers to address an issue they have long deferred. From the halls of the UN to local assemblies in cities worldwide, Palestine has emerged not only as a regional issue but also as a defining moral crisis.
The Al-Aqsa Flood underscores a growing consensus that achieving peace requires addressing root causes: ending the occupation, dismantling settlements, and respecting the Palestinian right to self-determination.
Western governments, particularly in Europe, are increasingly split in their support for Israel’s policies. Public opinion in many European countries is shifting as citizens demand more balanced foreign policies and greater accountability for human rights abuses. This shift has pressured European leaders to consider measures previously off the table, including conditional foreign aid and sanctions against Israel if it fails to comply with international law.
The political landscape is changing rapidly, and Israel’s traditional allies are finding it harder to maintain unequivocal support in the face of persistent international outcry and growing demands for justice.
The broader Muslim and Arab worlds, long wary of external interference, are now reassessing their geopolitical alignments. Recent moves by countries such as Spain, Norway, and Ireland to recognize Palestinian statehood indicate that diplomatic support is gaining traction. In the Gulf, new economic realities are pushing states to consider closer coordination with emerging Eastern powers, creating a more diversified and less Western-reliant bloc. These countries increasingly see stability in the region as interwoven with Palestinian independence and regional sovereignty, advocating for a future that prioritizes diplomacy over conflict.
Internally, Israel faces profound and unprecedented challenges. Netanyahu’s strategy of pursuing aggressive military action in Gaza and confrontational policies in Lebanon and beyond has strained the Israeli economy, diminished social cohesion, and triggered public discontent. His approach has not only polarized Israeli society but also weakened its image internationally. As Israel contends with its domestic disillusionment, economic challenges, and declining credibility, its leadership is faced with the possibility that military solutions may no longer provide the strategic leverage they once did.
This period has also rejuvenated Palestinian unity, particularly among the younger generation. With social media amplifying their voices worldwide, Palestinians are shaping global perceptions and mobilizing solidarity on an unprecedented scale. They are connecting their struggle with broader movements for justice and human rights, framing the Palestinian cause as part of a global pursuit of equality and dignity. This shift has strengthened transnational alliances and given rise to a new era of advocacy, positioning Palestine as a touchstone for justice in international policy debates.
Looking forward, the Al-Aqsa Flood may signal the beginning of a new paradigm in Middle Eastern relations. A united Palestinian leadership, backed by regional allies and global public support, now stands a greater chance of shaping negotiations that address Palestinian rights in a meaningful way.
As calls for accountability grow louder, the international community faces a pivotal choice: continue with the status quo, which has historically led to cycles of violence and repression, or embrace a new diplomatic approach that acknowledges the rights and aspirations of all people in the region.
In conclusion, the Al-Aqsa Flood represents more than a conflict – it is a testament to the enduring strength of a people seeking justice and autonomy. This watershed moment has unveiled the limitations of force and the power of collective resistance. While challenges remain and the road to peace is fraught with complexity, the lessons learned from this conflict are undeniable.
The world stands at a crossroads where support for justice, diplomacy, and human rights can pave the way for a lasting resolution, not only for Palestine but for a more stable and equitable Middle East. The true test now lies in whether the international community is willing to act upon these lessons, advancing a future rooted in mutual respect, coexistence, and an unwavering commitment to peace.
* The writer is a former assistant foreign minister
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