Above all, this election is about which candidate can best guarantee the health of America’s governing institutions. Only one will provide the predictability that US businesses need to thrive, and demonstrates the equanimity required to address complex global challenges.
And herein lies the election’s most central paradox. While Donald Trump promises stability through authoritarian control, he would instead deliver unprecedented chaos and social disorder. His personality and leadership style – impulsive, combative, egotistical, racially and sexually divisive, and dismissive of expert advice – are precisely tuned to escalate, rather than mitigate, societal tensions.
As a cultural psychologist who studies the hidden codes that drive our behavior, my research shows that all human societies navigate a fundamental tension between “tightness” (strict rules and order) and “looseness” (more permissive norms and tolerance). When communities experience visible disorder, people instinctively crave security and want to tighten up.
This dynamic can be found throughout history, and it is evident in America today. Although violent crime has rapidly declined in US cities, we have nonetheless witnessed a widespread erosion of social norms: open drug use, homelessness, and flagrant disruptive behavior – from random acts of violence against young women in New York City to lewd sexual behavior and public urination.
These signs of social breakdown are deeply disturbing, driving people to seek stricter controls. To Americans who feellike the world is falling apart, Trump’s promise of a return to a tight social order has obvious appeal. Yet despite the allure of such promises, peril lurks in plain sight. Trump’s leadership will unleash even more instability at home and abroad.
Trump’s penchant for creating disorder is well known. During his first presidential term, he repeatedly set out to weaken the institutions that have maintained social order in America for decades, including the Justice Department, the intelligence community, the press, the Electoral College, and more. His administration’s turnover rate for senior positions was over 90% – the highest in presidential history. Worse, experts were replaced with loyalists, and many critical positions were left unfilled.
Businesses, meanwhile, were left to cope with Trump’s whims and acts of retribution. Recall Amazon’s loss of a cloud computing contract with the US military because the company’s founder, Jeff Bezos, also owned the Washington Post, which frequently criticized Trump. (That decision was only partly reversed by the courts.) Trump shifted policies without warning (often in late-night tweets), including on tariffs, trade, and other issues.
Trump also played havoc with public safety and health. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, he let communities and states fend for themselves, belittled public-health experts’ guidance, and even suggested his own untested and sometimes dangerous cures, including the ingestion of bleach. Trump’s massive mismanagement of the crisis resultedin hundreds of thousands of excess deaths and one of the highest per capita mortality rates among developed countries.
Trump’s egoistic leadership style also incited chaos at the US Capitol during what should have been a peaceful transition of power. Despite the violence and destruction, he now calls the January 6 insurrection “a day of love.”
The same recklessness extended far beyond America’s borders, creating diplomatic upheaval. Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of US troops from Syria – another announcement made via Twitter – shocked military leaders. He constantly lauded autocrats and sniped at America’s loyal democratic allies, threatening the most important US security partnerships, even NATO, the most successful and durable alliance in history. With every impetuous decision, he promoted international instability rather than order.
The chaos he sowed during his first term will be far worse if he’s re-elected. Trump has vowed to replace career civil servants with those who will follow his orders blindly; to use federal agencies to exact revenge on his political adversaries; to deploy the military against ordinary citizens; and to interfere with disaster relief in states that oppose his policies. Following the Supreme Court’s decision immunizing presidents from criminal prosecution for virtually all “official” acts, there are fewer checks on such behavior than ever.
The costs of heightened chaos under Trump would be enormous. The business community, which needs predictability, would struggle to adjust to erratic policy shifts and personal vendettas against companies deemed insufficiently loyal.
Likewise, Trump’s disruption of cooperation between federal and local authorities, and his rash tariff, labor, and tax policies, would destabilize communities across the country, with working-class families especially vulnerable to the resultant job losses. First-generation immigrants who fled unstable countries, and who have supported Trump, would recognize his resemblance to the very leaders they wanted to escape. He, too, will target dissidents and use security forces for personal gain. With his divisive leadership style, inflammatory rhetoric, and relentless spread of misinformation, he will push us toward dangerous levels of conflict and distrust.
In stark contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris promises greater stability. She works through institutions, agencies, stakeholders, and advocacy groups that have been shaped by decades or centuries of experience. As a former prosecutor, she demonstrates a keen understanding of the legitimate role (and limits) of law enforcement, while also promoting trust-building between communities and police.
Harris also brings wisdom to critical urban challenges in ways that integrate public safety with essential community services, including mental-health care, addiction treatment, and affordable housing. In foreign affairs, she will work to build – not destroy – relationships. She promises stable, predictable policymaking rather than performative toughness.
Most importantly, Harris understands that social order comes from strengthening institutions, not undermining them. Rather than following whims and pursuing vendettas, she has consistently worked through legitimate channels, respects expertise, and puts the country’s welfare above personal gain.
The US faces real challenges that will require some degree of “tightening.” But societies that tighten in the wrong way often spiral into greater chaos. The right way requires strong institutions and predictable rule enforcement, not the venal and erratic leadership of a would-be strongman.
Michele Gelfand, Professor of Organizational Behavior and Psychology at Stanford University, is the author of Rule Makers, Rule Breakers: Tight and Loose Cultures and the Secret Signals That Direct Our Lives (Simon & Schuster, 2019).
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.
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