The outbreak of the fifth Gaza War on 7 October 2023 was a major turning point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It not only ushered in a new chapter in the Palestinian cause or a more virulent manifestation of the hatred and evil of the decades-long Israeli occupation; it entirely reshaped the dimensions of the conflict and the ways subsequent events interwove with regional and international developments, bringing us to the current phase of “post-ceasefire failure”.
After refusing to enter the agreed-on second stage of the ceasefire, having failed to protract the first, Israel returned to full-genocide mode. This intent, moreover, has been made explicit in the two options Israel presented to the Palestinians in Gaza in its latest ultimatum: either “voluntary” displacement or total destruction.
In the days since the ceasefire collapsed, Hamas has offered no indication of how it intends to respond to the brutal and relentless Israeli assault coupled with the push to drive Palestinians to Ashdod Port or nearby Israeli airports while searching for countries willing to receive the displaced population. Meanwhile, Arab analysts have been focused on the latest surge in Israeli brutality, the internal political calculations driving it, and Trump’s role in this. Yet, oddly, they have paid little attention to the Palestinian negotiating party — Hamas — or how the latest Israeli assault has shaped its calculations in its capacity as Gaza’s representative.
The current situation is not just another instance of “la plus ça change.” While the patterns of genocide and ethnic cleansing persist, it is not so much that they are fiercer, but that Trump has lent himself to the escalatory dynamics. “Trumpist” negotiating tactics paved the way to the Israeli onslaught, which then received the US president’s full endorsement as he unleashed a full-scale war on the Houthis and hinted at more of the same against Iran. The war in Gaza and its regional extensions continue, but this time it has received added impetus from a head of state who came to power on a pledge of making peace only to preside over what may soon become another forever war.
This turning point occurred just after Arab countries seized the initiative to propose an Egyptian-Arab plan for the reconstruction of Gaza without displacing its people and Riyadh stepped in to serve as the centre for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. So, it is no coincidence that, while Hamas has little or nothing left to offer whether in terms of negotiations or war, the Israeli propaganda machine and the media of its Western backers turned their guns on Egypt. In this offensive, they cast Egypt as next in line in the confrontation with Israel, whose leadership has reached the conclusion that reshaping the Middle East entails overhauling existing peace agreements. Already Israel has torn up the 1974 disengagement treaty with Syria as it occupied additional Syrian territory on the pretext of creating a buffer zone. Most likely, that too will be summarily annexed to Israel with the stamp of approval from Trump, as occurred with the occupied Golan.
This current juncture is further complicated by the repercussions of Israeli-US confrontations against Iran and its regional allies and the situation in Syria, which is undergoing a transformation with an uncertain outcome while being dragged into a conflict it seeks to avoid. This is the backdrop against which Israel and its backers have decided to lash out against Egypt. Israeli provocations towards Egypt are not new. However, the shift from allegations of arms smuggling to Hamas at the start of the war to complaints about Egyptian military presence on sovereign Egyptian land in Sinai signals a dangerous escalation.
Moreover, it ignores the agreed-on amendments to the security protocol of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. The latest of these amendments, introduced on 10 November 2021, grants Egypt the right to bolster its military presence not only in Sinai in general but along the Rafah border in particular. To compound its deceit, Israel blatantly disregards the presence of the multinational peacekeeping forces — half of whom are American — that oversee the treaty’s implementation. Moreover, as if one genocide were not enough, Israeli newspapers in Hebrew and English are airing the possibility of bombing the High Dam.
All the foregoing points to an intensification of Israeli atrocities in Gaza — with Hamas unable to respond beyond the victories claimed on Aljazeera’s screens — and to a full-fledged regional war spreading in multiple directions. The outlook is very grim, especially now that the war in Ukraine has taken precedence over Gaza on Washington’s agenda and Israel feels it has a free hand to carve out pieces of its neighbours’ territories to gratify the expansionist ambitions of its fascist factions.
What Israel fails to grasp is that it is squandering its opportunity for coexistence in the region. It may also not realise that some of the pieces it is drooling over may not only prove bitter but also that when it attempts to swallow them it will choke.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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