White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced last month that US President Donald Trump will undertake a Gulf tour from 13 to 16 May during which he will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. It has also been reported that the Saudi government will host a US-Gulf Summit meeting in Riyadh.
With the exception of his travel to Rome last month to attend the funeral of the late Roman Catholic Pope Francis, this tour will be Trump’s first since taking office in January. It may be recalled that his first trip abroad during his previous term at the White House from 2017 to 2021 was also to Saudi Arabia.
In both these instances, economic and investment opportunities were the main drivers behind Trump’s choice of foreign destination, as well as, most importantly, arms deals. During his 2017 trip to the Gulf, Trump talked about arms deals worth $450 billion.
His visits to the three Gulf countries this time around will also centre on expanding bilateral relations between the US and the Gulf countries, especially in the economic and financial sectors. US arms sales will also be at the centre of the talks. There have already been unconfirmed reports that the US will export arms worth $100 billion to Saudi Arabia.
As far as Gulf investments in the US economy are concerned, the US and Saudi governments have reportedly agreed on Saudi investments worth $1 trillion. Moreover, the UAE has decided to invest up to $1.4 trillion in the United States over the next ten years. According to press reports, Qatar has been in consultation with the US administration to build a gas pipeline to Europe through Turkey.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been in talks with the US administration to expand cooperation in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The Emiratis are planning to turn their country into a regional hub for AI.
However, regional developments rather than economic ones will likely take centre stage during Trump’s tour. The three rounds of the negotiations between the US and Iran concerning the Iranian nuclear programme that were launched on 9 April in Oman are likely to be the major topic on the agenda.
Both the Saudis and the Emiratis are interested in building nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes. The US government has not publicly opposed the launch of such programmes in principle, which will depend, from the US point of view, on reaching an agreement with Iran on the future of its nuclear programme that does not allow Tehran to manufacture nuclear weapons. The last thing the US wants is a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
The three Gulf countries included in the tour will call on Trump to rein in Israel, not only in Gaza and the West Bank but also in Lebanon and Syria. As far as the situation in Gaza is concerned, they will demand that the US ensures Israeli compliance with the ceasefire agreement made last January that Israel has blatantly violated since 18 March.
They will also want to see Israel commit to reopening the Gaza crossings that it closed on 2 March, a move that stopped the delivery of much-needed humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians in Gaza.
I would not rule out the Israelis scaling down their military operations in Gaza over the next two weeks, despite reports that the Israeli Army will be calling up reserves to active duty. I would also not be surprised to see the resumption, albeit in small quantities, of humanitarian assistance and the delivery of fuel to Gaza in the days preceding the arrival of Trump in the Gulf and during his three-day tour.
It was no coincidence that the US website Axios reported on 3 May that the US administration and the Israeli government have agreed to resume humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip via American security companies so that it will not fall into the hands of Hamas. No further details have been provided on the date of the delivery of this assistance and through which crossings.
It is possible that the Arab-Islamic Reconstruction Plan for Gaza that was officially presented by Egypt at the extraordinary Arab Summit meeting that Cairo hosted on 4 March will be raised during Trump’s Gulf tour and that some ideas will come out of such discussions to render it more acceptable to the US administration.
Although Trump’s tour will dwell mainly on bilateral and US-Gulf relations, it could also contribute to de-escalating the wider situation in the Middle East provided that Trump’s Gulf hosts can leverage their substantial future investments in the US economy in the medium and longer term to steer the US administration closer to Arab positions related to the war on Gaza and prospects for a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian question.
After all, the Saudis and the OPEC Plus countries agreed last week to increase oil production despite falling oil prices on world markets. This decision was meant to help the Trump administration lower petrol prices in the United States, thus also helping to lower the US inflation rate and nudging the US Federal Reserve towards lowering interest rates.
Trump has been insisting, some would say in an aggressive way, that the Fed must lower interest rates.
The assistance the Gulf countries give to the Trump administration in these regards should help to soften its positions on a complete cessation of hostilities in Gaza and the reopening of all the crossings in addition to a withdrawal plan for the Israeli forces from Gaza.
In other words, it is to be hoped that Trump’s Gulf tour will result in a more balanced approach by the US to the Palestinian question in all its aspects.
The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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