During a lecture I delivered a week ago, “Egyptian-American Relations after the End of the Cold War”, the first question from the audience concerned where the current war in the region was headed. My answer was blunt: “It’s taking us to hell.”
The first rays of light that morning had brought reports of the Saudi response to missiles launched from Iraq, where the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) are based. So I did not need to read tea leaves, lay out tarot cards, consult the stars or even distill the import of dozens of scholastic studies. I only needed to follow the course of events as they unfolded across the Middle East over the previous days. They were still oscillating between returning to full-scale war and restarting negotiations aimed at finding, according to the provisions of the broken ceasefire agreement, a solution to the crisis of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had decided to take control of the strait – not only along the stretch parallel to its own coast, but also along the Omani coast where transit or other maritime activity are prohibited unless approved by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
During the period of negotiation manoeuvring, the Fourth Gulf War became a regional conflict. It has spread to the south-western Arabian Peninsula, where the Houthis launched missiles at Saudi targets after Saudi Arabia prevented the arrival in Sanaa of an Iranian delegation accompanied by weapons, ammunition and trainers. This was not the first time Houthi militias had struck targets in Saudi Arabia, including some belonging to Aramco. They had also struck the Emirati port of Fujairah. What was new this time was the stance and capability demonstrated by the internationally recognised Yemeni government. Its response demonstrated the Saudi-led Arab coalition’s participation in the war that began on 7 October 2023 and continues to spread its poison nearly three years on.
More remarkable still is that the legitimate government and the coalition – thanks to a courageous naval force – have so far managed to prevent the Houthis from closing the Strait of Bab Al-Mandeb. Iran has thus failed to realise its dream of controlling two straits simultaneously: Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandeb. While the former carries 20 per cent of global oil exports, the latter carries 15 per cent of global trade.
The regional war is now affecting Arab countries stretching from the Arabian Gulf in the east and the Indian Ocean in the south to the Red Sea in the west and the Mediterranean in the north. The war, which was sparked in the border area between Gaza and Israel on 7 October 2023, expanded under the influence of Iran and its proxies, and of the radical ideologies they have imposed upon the Middle East – ideologies that fell under the rubric of “The Resistance and Rejection Front” or the “Support Front”. Regardless of the name, the aim is one: to destroy the Arab nation-state and prevent it from pursuing the path of progress.
Accordingly, the Iraqi PMF launched another drone and missile attack against the Kingdom while still refusing to surrender their weapons and threatening to plunge Iraq into civil war if any attempt is made to disarm them. That other factions have turned in their weapons has made no difference to them. This is part and parcel of the various militias’ preferred game of brinksmanship. Hizbullah and Hamas rely on blackmailing the authorities in Lebanon and Gaza, respectively.
Saudi and Yemeni action against the PMF in Iraq and the Houthis at the entrance to the Red Sea were major steps towards foiling the militias’ game. They were mirrored by earlier and subsequent responses to attacks carried out by Iran and its proxies against Arabian Peninsula states. Iran’s efforts to impose control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait must not be allowed to succeed. If they succeed, they will disrupt global trade routes, threaten the Saudi oil-export terminal at Yanbu, and impede access to global markets via the SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal.
In this regional confrontation, an Arab and Middle Eastern regional solution with international backing is needed in order to thwart Iranian plans and counter the militias that currently threaten the integrity of the Arab nation-state in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, and that have now set their sights on Syria. What is required is, first, the revival of the coalition that liberated Kuwait in the Second Gulf War. Its mission this time would be to deter Iranian aggression and prevent the militias from achieving their objective of toppling the nation-state.
Secondly, all possible support must be given to the governments that have clearly declared that control over arms, political decision-making and decisions concerning war and peace must rest with the legitimate national authority. Thirdly, the current coalition of evil must be stripped of its legitimacy by addressing its political and social bases directly, especially considering these bases’ distinguished history of nation-building since independence. Fourthly, given that the war impacts not only the interests of frontline Arab states but also international peace and security, international support should come from countries that have been harmed by the war in the region.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 August, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: