On 9 March, days after Egypt joined 140 countries voting for a UN General Assembly resolution calling for a halt to the war in Ukraine and an immediate withdrawal of Russian forces, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin talked by phone.

The conversation was the first between the two leaders since the eruption of the war in Ukraine on 24 February. The last time they spoke was in December 2021, when they discussed ways to boost Egyptian-Russian military, economic, business, industrial, and energy cooperation. They also reviewed Russia’s growing projects in Egypt, including the $26 billion Dabaa nuclear power plant, and investments in the Suez Canal Economic Free Zone.

Presidential Spokesman Bassam Radi said the 9 March conversation touched on enhancing strategic cooperation between the two countries through joint development projects currently underway, and confirmed the strength of the deeply rooted relations between the two states.

A Kremlin statement gave more details. It said the two presidents discussed further development of the strategic partnership between Russia and Egypt, including major joint projects in nuclear energy and industrial production. “Both parties also expressed interest in continuing close cooperation in areas of tourism and agriculture,” said the Kremlin, and “the two presidents agreed to maintain contacts at various levels to discuss the development of bilateral relations.”

Since the outbreak of war, Egypt has taken a neutral line. Although it voted in favour of the anti-Russia UN resolution on 3 March, it also said it rejected economic sanctions outside the framework of the international multilateral system given that they aggravate the suffering of civilians.

“In their most recent phone call, Al-Sisi and Putin were keen to stress that there is a strategic partnership between the two countries and that they are keen to preserve and consolidate it,” said Gamal Zahran, a professor of political science at Suez Canal University.

According to Zahran, President Al-Sisi also used the call with Putin to clarify the position Egypt and most Arab countries had taken in the UN General Assembly, and stress that condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not mean Egypt was joining the West in its economic war against Russia.

Journalist Abdallah Al-Sinnawi pointed out that Egypt and other Arab states have been developing stronger ties with Russia and China in recent years. Arab Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have become increasingly aware of the dangers of depending on just one superpower, and as a consequence have been keen to forge closer relations with Russia and China.

“Russia was the first to support Egypt’s revolution in 2013 and moved to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation in 2014,” said Al-Sinnawi. “Putin was also the first world leader to congratulate Al-Sisi on his election as president of Egypt in June 2014, and the two countries have coordinated policies on Libya. Cairo also supported Moscow’s role in Syria.”

Political and military commentator Samir Farag stressed the importance of Egypt’s 2014 decision to diversify its arms suppliers.

“Instead of depending for military support on one source, Egypt under Al-Sisi sought to seek other reliable army suppliers, turning to Russia, China, and France,” said Farag.

Timothy Kaldas, a policy fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, noted in a press interview that “since coming to office in 2014, President Al-Sisi has worked to forge close relations with Russia in a variety of fields, including not just arms, but also energy, transport, and agriculture.”

“Al-Sisi has sought to use his relations with Russia and China to help Egypt absorb Western pressure in the area of human rights and the harm this pressure could cause Egypt’s internal security and economic needs.”

Over the past eight years Egypt has also become a major buyer of Russian wheat and train carriages, and opted for a Russian company, Rosatom, to construct its first nuclear power plant at Dabaa near Alexandria. Just as significantly, says Farag, “Russians now represent the bulk of foreign tourists to Egypt.”

Gregory Borisenko, Russia’s ambassador in Cairo since 2020, told Sky News Arabia last week that Egyptian-Russian relations prospered greatly in 2021.

“Close personal relations between the presidents of the two countries have pushed economic and military cooperation between Egypt and Russia to new heights,” said Borisenko. “The commercial exchange between the two countries hit $3.5 billion between January and September 2021, and in April 2021 Moscow announced the return of direct air flights between Russian cities and Egypt’s Red Sea resorts of Hurghada and Sharm El-Sheikh.”

Zahran and Al-Sinnawi both warn that Egypt’s relations with Russia could face a setback if the Ukraine war continues for long and Western sanctions begin to bite.

“Progress in the construction of the Dabaa nuclear plant could slow, and importing wheat from Russia will become very difficult now Russian banks have been excluded from the SWIFT payment system. Russian tourists could also find it hard to come to Egypt,” said Al-Sinnawi.

“The Russian industrial area in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, construction of which was scheduled to be complete this year, and which was predicted to attract $7 billion in investments, is now expected to come to a halt.”

Minister of Planning and Economic Development Hala Al-Said said last week that there was no doubt that sanctions against Russia would negatively affect Egypt’s vital tourism sector. On 5 March, Russia’s Ural Airlines announced that it was suspending flights to Egypt from 14 March to 20 May.

Zahran is also concerned that the West may try to pressure Egypt to do more to isolate Russia. “This conflict could end up polarising the world, leading to new alliances and arrangements which will compound the challenges Cairo faces. Egypt might find itself obliged to scrap its strategic relations with Russia,” he says.

Al-Sinnawi argues that Egypt should endeavour to maintain its extensive ties with both Russia and the West. “I think it is in Egypt’s strategic interest to maintain a neutral line even if the conflict continues for some time,” he said.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 March, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.