Coming amid the war in Gaza, which erupted on 7 October, it was feared that the election process would be a sideshow, with the public’s attention fixed on events across Egypt’s eastern border, said Al-Ahram political analyst and former MP Gamal Zahran. “Some observers even called for postponing the ballot until the war was over.”

However, 66 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots, representing 44 million Egyptians. Incumbent President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi secured 89.6 per cent of the valid votes. Hazem Omar, head of the People’s Republican Party, came second with 4.05 per cent of the votes. Farid Zahran, head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, came third, also with around four per cent. Abdel-Sanad Yamama, head of the Wafd Party, came last with 1.9 per cent of the votes.

In a statement following the announcement of the results, Al-Sisi praised the high turnout, especially that the elections came amid a host of challenges on top of which is the conflict on Egypt’s eastern borders. The war in Gaza calls for mobilising the efforts of all Egyptians to prevent it from dragging on because of the risks it poses to Egypt’s national security, Al-Sisi stressed.  “I understand the challenges that we faced and are still facing,” Al-Sisi added, praising the Egyptian citizen’s heroic role in facing terrorism and tolerating the reform programme.

The election process stretched from 5 October to 18 December. Under the constitution candidates were required to secure endorsements from at least 20 MPs or 25,000 registered voters across at least 15 governorates, with a minimum of 1,000 endorsements from each governorate. Al-Sisi secured 424 endorsements from MPs and more than one million endorsements from citizens nationwide. Zahran, Yamama, and Omar secured endorsements from 30, 26, and 46 MPs, respectively.

Two candidates — former MP Ahmed Al-Tantawi and chair of Dostour Party Gameela Ismail — dropped out of the race after failing to secure the needed endorsements.

Divisions among opposition forces made it difficult for Ismail to join the presidential race, said Al-Ahram political analyst Amr Hashem Rabie.“She failed because opposition MPs in the House of Representatives chose to give their endorsements to head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party Farid Zahran.”

Al-Tantawi claimed his supporters faced intimidation when trying to register their endorsements at public notary offices nationwide.

“They were intimidated by members of pro-government political parties, particularly the Mostaqbal Watan and Humat Watan, whose supporters were instructed to make it difficult for our campaign to officially register endorsements,” he claimed..

Following Al-Sisi’s victory at the polls speculation is rife that a new loan deal with the IMF is in the offing. In December 2022, Egypt concluded a four-year IMF loan agreement programme worth $3 billion. Egypt received the initial installment and was slated to receive two more tranches in March and September 2023. The installments, however, were delayed, reportedly due to disagreements with IMF officials who want the government to implement flexible interest and exchange rate regimes.

Signs that the two sides were moving closer to an agreement came in November when IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the fund was contemplating expanding Egypt’s loan programme given the ongoing economic challenges Egypt was facing and the impact of the Israeli war on Gaza.

The ongoing war in Gaza represents a major challenge for Al-Sisi in his new term. During the first two months of the conflict the president regularly repeated his rejection of attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai. There is a fear, however, that Israel’s brutal offensive in south Gaza, after destroying north Gaza to rubble, could leave thousands of people with little choice but to try and cross into Sinai.

Al-Ahram political analyst Gamal Abdel-Gawwad believes that one reason people voted to re-elect President Al-Sisi is that they recognised he was the most capable of the candidatesto face the security challenges posed by the war in Gaza and ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Libya, and Yemen.

 “People chose President Al-Sisi because of his experience in overcoming security challenges. After all, he was a former minister of defence and head of military intelligence,” said Abdel-Gawwad.

The threat of a mass displacement of Palestinians, according to Abdel-Gawwad, is understood to be “a risk to Egyptian national security and therefore increased support for the president”.

Timothy E Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, said in an interview that under President Al-Sisi Egypt had shown itself as a reliable political partner in the region and successful mediator.

“This not only boosted Al-Sisi’s international reputation ahead of the election, but it also has had a positive impact on the country’s finances,” said Kaldas.

He added that the European Commission is studying a possible allocation of nine billion euros worth of investments in Egypt and there are reports that the IMF is considering doubling the size of Egypt’s loan.

President Al-Sisi will also face the challenge of implementing the recommendations passed by the National Dialogue, including a raft of political and human rights reforms.

According to Abdel-Gawwad, “Al-Sisi will refer laws on the election system, local councils, political parties, the exercise of political rights, and the creation of anti-discrimination commission to the House of Representatives to be discussed and passed.”

Abdel-Gawwad also expects more political prisoners to be released from jail over the course of 2024.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 December, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly