“Our meeting today not only demonstrates the strength and distinction of the relations between our three brotherly nations but also reflects the growing importance of developing and enhancing these deep-rooted ties,” Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi said in a press conference following his summit with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Asmara last week.

A final communiqué said the three leaders agreed to enhance Somalia’s state institutions to confront various internal and external challenges and to enable the Somali army to face terrorism in all its forms.

Salah Halima, former deputy to Egypt’s foreign minister and a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, said that cooperation among the three states was based on strategic partnerships primarily concerned with combating terrorism and achieving security and stability as well as confronting any attempts that can encroach upon the national security of the three countries, and that of the Red Sea, the Arab and the Horn of Africa regions.

Thus, Halima elaborated, the partnership has two facets: one related to security and combating terrorism and the other to the national security of the three countries and the region.

Ramadan Qurani, an African affairs expert, said that holding the summit “at this sensitive and dangerous time” for the Horn of Africa is a serious step for the three countries.

The move by the three countries, in addition to neighbouring Djibouti, Qurani added, is an attempt to build a new regional and security order in the Horn of Africa based on three principles: giving precedence to international law and regulations, maintaining the territorial integrity and security of the countries in the region and looking for African solutions to the crises in the Horn of Africa.

“Thus, the final statement directly underlined the importance of Somalia’s sovereignty and integrity. It also highlighted the Sudan crisis given that both Egypt and Eritrea have common borders with Sudan. And any developments in Sudan are likely to have an effect on Somalia,” Qurani told Al-Ahram Weekly.

In their summit, the three leaders shared similar views on the management of the crisis in Sudan, its regional ramifications and the importance of working to resolve the crisis. They were also in agreement on the importance of security and cooperation among the Red Sea states, and the significance of the vital maritime passage to these states and the region.

With that in mind, Halima explained, the three leaders underlined, in the final statement, their rejection of unilateral acts and imposing a fait accompli.

He added that a memorandum of understanding signed by Ethiopia and Somaliland was not based on any legal precedent and presents a real threat to the Red Sea states. It is also an act of interference in Somali affairs and presents a threat to Somali integrity. This also applied to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file.

The leaders agreed to establish a trilateral joint committee comprising the foreign ministers of the three countries to enhance strategic cooperation in all areas.

The summit, convened against the backdrop of tense relations between the three countries on the one hand, and Ethiopia on the other, prompted an angry reaction from Addis Ababa.

Cairo’s relations with Addis Ababa have been strained for the last decade because of the failure to reach an agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD. Egypt regards the unilateral building of GERD as a threat to the volume of water flowing down the river, which it fully relies on.

Bilateral relations between Somalia and Ethiopia were strained when Addis Ababa signed an MoU at the beginning of the year with the self-declared Somaliland to lease a section of its coastline. Somalia views the MoU as unlawful and an “act of aggression” as it considers Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia in 1991, to be part of its territory.

It was widely speculated that in return for the use of a port, Ethiopia would become the first country to recognise Somaliland as a sovereign nation sometime in the future and which further angered the Somali government. Immediately after the deal was disclosed, Somalia’s president expressed his opposition to the deal: “We will defend our country, we will defend it by all means necessary and seek the support of any ally willing to help us.” He described Ethiopia as his country’s “enemy”.

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea were strained because of the bloody border war between the two states for more than two decades. In 2018, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a “declaration of peace and friendship” with Eritrea. But ties between the two countries deteriorated again following the end of the two-year civil war with the TPLF, an opposition group in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which borders Eritrea.

Asmara had been an ally of the Ethiopian government throughout the war but was unhappy with the deal that ended the fighting at the end of 2022. The agreement left the TPLF intact, a fact that contradicted Eritrea’s goal of dismantling the group, as it views it as a serious threat to its national security.

Tension was further aggravated by Abiy Ahmed’s announcement last year that his country wanted to secure access to a port on the Red Sea, and his signing of the MoU with Somaliland this year.

At the end of their extensive consultations on regional and international issues, the leaders agreed to establish a trilateral joint committee comprising the foreign ministers of the three countries to enhance strategic cooperation in all areas.

With such regional hostility, Ethiopia claimed that three countries were coming together to form an axis against Ethiopian interests. The claims were denied by Somalia’s Information Minister Daud Aweis. Aweis said that the summit was only about cooperation between the three countries. “We are not determined to instigate anything against Addis Ababa,” he told the media after the summit. He added that the three countries “stand for peace, and we don’t think that such a meeting in Asmara has anything to do with Ethiopia.”

According to Qurani, Addis Ababa is simply trying to spread its “negative narrative” on the summit by claiming that it is strictly designed to form an anti-Ethiopia military alliance. He said that Addis Ababa has repeatedly tried to interpret Egyptian moves as anti-Ethiopian.

He argued that the summit of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia made no reference to any military alliance and was focused solely on cooperation among the three countries. He added that faced with “multiple internal crises, including a stifling economic crisis,” the regime in Addis Ababa is trying to exaggerate external issues in an attempt to distract public opinion from its internal problems. “Perhaps the clearest attempt is to describe the present cooperation among the three states as a military alliance against Ethiopia,” Qurani said.

Last week’s visit was President Al-Sisi’s first to Asmara. It came after Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and the head of its General Intelligence Service Abbas Kamel visited the Eritrean capital last month where they discussed pressing issues, including GERD and Red Sea security.

The Eritrean president’s last bilateral meeting with Al-Sisi was in February. The Somali president has already been to Egypt three times this year. In the meetings, the top officials from the three states reiterated their commitment to maintaining coordination across various levels and to bolster regional security and stability.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 17 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly