On Thursday morning in Cairo, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi was scheduled to open the 10th summit meeting of the D-8 group of developing nations. Formed in 1997, D-8 includes Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey.
An Egyptian government source said that the agenda of the D-8 summit will essentially focus on cooperation between the eight Muslim majority developing countries and their “ambitious plan to expand trade and economic cooperation” by 2030. He added, however, that “with the anticipated participation of both Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, developments in Syria will be the subject of talks both leaders will have with President Al-Sisi.”
The source said that the final communiqué of the Cairo Summit will refer to the situation in Syria following the fall of the regime of Bashar Al-Assad on 8 December and the situation in Gaza given upscaled talks that aim to reach a ceasefire “hopefully in the coming weeks or days”. Consultations between the three leaders on the margins of the summit will also allow for more elaborate engagement and sharing of opinions.
Turkey and Iran exercise significant influence in Syria which grew in the wake of the Arab Spring democracy protests of 2011 and during the civil war that replaced the peaceful protests. Turkey was supportive of the democracy calls and of the Islamist groups, including Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). Iran, for its part, supported the Al-Assad regime and was directly involved in helping Al-Assad in the military conflict against militant group, most notably through Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Following the sudden fall of the Al-Assad regime, Turkish influence on neighbouring Syria has strengthened while Iranian influence has decreased. Iran had all but openly blamed Turkey for the fall of the regime, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei saying that “a neighbouring country” was behind the collapse.
The Erdogan-Pezeshkian encounter in Cairo on Thursday will be the first since the change of dynamics on the ground in Syria. According to the Egyptian government source, the Cairo meeting will focus on the future of Syria and the possible roles of all influential players in shaping this future.
“It is no secret that for Egypt the rule of a militant group associated with Al-Qaeda is something to worry about,” he said. He explained that while Egypt was fully aware of the “disturbing influence” of the pro-Iran militant groups during the past 10 years in Syria “and had worked with other Arab countries to provide Syria with an Arab safety net to help reduce this influence”, this does not compare to having a radical regime in office.
“So far things are unclear. The new regime in Syria remains enigmatic,” he said. He argued that it is far from apparent whether HTS rule in Syria will be similar to that of radical groups in other Muslim majority countries or if it will be “similar to the Turkish model”.
Turkey, he said, was “certainly an important factor in the advances made by HTS” earlier this month, even though “Ankara may well have been surprised by the speed of advances on the ground”. But the association between Ankara and the HTS, he warned, does not mean the new regime in Syria will follow the Turkish model.
An informed Egyptian security source said that Turkey and Qatar, both very supportive of all Arab Spring protests, are in direct touch with HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa and have passed “reassuring messages” from him to concerned regional and world capitals.
Both the government and security sources say there is as yet no clarity on the path Al-Sharaa and his partners will take, on the influence Al-Sharaa actually exercises over the political choices of HTS, or whether or not he will run for president.
In Aqaba, on 15 December, the foreign ministers of Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE met to discuss ways to secure a “peaceful and inclusive transition for Syria”. They also met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken who had arrived in the region earlier in the week. Participating in the consultations were representatives of the Arab League, the UN, and the European Union.
According to a UN source, it was agreed in Aqaba that the UN Special Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen would hold intensive meetings with “all the political players in Syria” to help reach an inclusive, consensual plan for the future of the country.
The same source said it “is not at all easy” to think of a representative political dispensation taking hold in Syria given “the weakness of political groups that have no militant backing and the conflicts that have occurred between all groups, militant and civil, since 2011.” He added that “Syria is a difficult country given its delicate ethnic composition and also given that it has been a venue for proxy bras de fer — both militant and political”.
For Cairo, say the two Egyptian sources, the number one priority is the stability and territorial integrity of Syria. Other priorities, they suggest, include the need for the new regime in Damascus to refrain from intervening with the internal affairs of neighbouring countries and to refrain from nourishing militant Islamic groups in the region.
The two Egyptian sources added that the Arab countries that met in Aqaba underlined the importance of Israel not seeking to take advantage of the transition in Syria. Last week, Israel expanded its military presence beyond the occupied Golan Heights. This week, the Israeli government approved a plan to expand the volume of settlements in the Golan Heights. Israel has also carried out wide-ranging aerial strikes against military targets in Syria.
The fall of the Al-Assad regime came as Cairo and Amman were hoping to push regional stability forward with a possible ceasefire deal for Gaza to end Israel’s genocidal war. While in the Middle East, Blinken had said there were hopes a ceasefire deal could be secured relatively soon.
In Cairo this week for talks with President Al-Sisi and other top state officials, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed similar hopes, though his tone was more reserved.
Ways to ensure any truce in Gaza is sustainable, and consolidate the ceasefire secured last month between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon, were expected to feature high on the agenda of Thursday’s discussions between Al-Sisi, Pezeshkian, and Erdogan, according to the Egyptian government source.
“Channels of communication between Egypt and Iran have been active during the past year and we have been conveying our views to the Iranians in a very open way,” he said.
Erdogan’s participation in the D-8 summit will be his second visit to Egypt since February this year. The two leaders, the Egyptian government source said, will have a chance to discuss other regional matters including a Turkish proposal to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and a proposed Turkish scheme for mediation to help end the war in Sudan.
Pezeshkian will be making his first visit to Egypt. Egypt and Iran have not had full diplomatic relations since 1979. While attempts to upgrade relations have been limited in the past, according to the Egyptian source “today, there might be more opportunities.”
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