Since 7 October, Egyptian-Israeli relations have been put to the test on multiple occasions. Egypt’s refusal to receive displaced Palestinians, Israel’s military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor and Tel Aviv’s short-lived suspension of gas exports to Egypt are just a few of the incidents that have revealed cracks in the relationship between the two countries over the past 18 months.
Israel’s recent statements indicating unwillingness to move to phase two of the ceasefire agreement is adding more tension to relations.
“Failure to fully implement the ceasefire will have serious repercussions on Egyptian-Israeli relations and for the region,” said Gamal Abdel-Gawad, a senior consultant at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
Egypt, he continued, together with Qatar and the US, have invested enormous efforts to broker the ceasefire deal and implement it on the ground to reach a permanent settlement in Gaza and avoid another war.
A diplomat who closely follows the ceasefire negotiations agrees with Abdel-Gawad, saying recent developments have left Egypt without a shadow of doubt that Israel is seeking to make political gains out of any peaceful regional settlement.
Israel has accepted the plan proposed by US envoy Steve Witkoff allowing for the release of more prisoners and extending the temporary ceasefire for 50 days without any reference to a permanent ceasefire or post-war arrangements in Gaza. It also halted the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza a day after the first phase of the deal expired.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country considers the Hamas’ proposal for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza “totally unacceptable”.
Abdel-Gawad pointed out that the situation has become more serious since Trump’s proposal to seize Gaza.
“The fact that Israel will try to make the maximum gains from the proposal may change the strategic framework that governs relations between Cairo and Tel Aviv and pose a real challenge to the region,” he told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Another layer of complexity in bilateral relations relates to Israel’s military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, the border strip separating Gaza and Sinai.
Egypt views Israeli control over the corridor as a provocative measure that threatens the foundations on which the peace agreement between the two countries was built.
Abdel-Gawad noted that Israel is probably evading phase two and phase three of the ceasefire deal it sees Trump’s proposal as offering “a better opportunity from its viewpoint” and “implementing the second phase will clash with that proposal”.
The second phase of the ceasefire was supposed to see the release of all remaining hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, including the border area with Egypt.
Israel’s preferred scenario is to free more hostages under an extension of the first phase rather than start the second phase, as Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has made clear.
Israel seized the Rafah border crossing in May last year, causing Egypt to close the crossing from its side. Since then, Egypt has repeatedly called on Israel to withdraw from the crossing and the corridor.
While Egypt has consistently argued that a two-state solution is the only viable path towards lasting peace in the region, Israel has repeatedly rejected such a resolution.
Since the signing of the peace treaty in 1979, relations between Egypt and Israel have been based on interests, economic cooperation and a desire to contain regional conflict rather than any form of friendship. In the last decade, the two countries have cooperated on counterterrorism.
The years immediately preceding the war in Gaza have saw an expansion of trade in natural gas trade between the two countries, given impetus by Egypt’s participation in the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum.
Egypt has been importing natural gas from Israel since 2020 following an increase in local demand for gas and the slowdown in production from the Zohr field in 2024.
At the beginning of the war on Gaza, Israel suspended gas exports to Egypt for a short period. Last year, the Egyptian government reached a deal with Israel to increase gas imports starting October to compensate for the decline in its own production. The increase saw Egypt import 1.2 billion cubic feet a day, up from 850 million cubic feet, and last month there were media reports that the two countries had agreed to increase imports to 1.6 billion cubic feet per day during the summer months.
The more than 15-month war in Gaza has led to public calls in Egypt for a review of the long-standing diplomatic relationship between Egypt and Israel and of the peace treaty, and boycott campaigns of Israeli and US products.
The wave of popular anger and rejection of Israel’s ethnic cleansing practices have reached the parliament, where some legislators are calling for a re-evaluation of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, with one deputy going so far as to tear up the treaty during a parliamentary session.
Observers say Cairo is caught between public anger and calls for a stronger stand to stop the killing of thousands of Palestinians and the need to maintain peace agreements with Israel, which is important to Egypt’s security and economic stability.
The Egyptian-Israeli relationship will undoubtedly be critical in shaping Gaza’s future and maintaining peace in the region which is why, says Abdel-Gawad, both countries, as well as the US, should exert every effort to keep relations calm.
“The most dangerous thing that the region could face is the collapse of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty,” he concluded.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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