While the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is now a fact of life and will soon be officially inaugurated on the Upper Nile in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa has repeatedly evaded reaching any agreement about its operations with downstream countries Egypt and Sudan.
Egypt has always rejected Ethiopia’s unilateral approach, and most political analysts still focus on diplomacy as Cairo’s most reliable option to do so.
Abbas Sharaki, a professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, noted that Cairo has not abandoned diplomatic efforts on the GERD and remains hopeful of the possibility of reaching an agreement that protects its water rights and benefits Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
An agreement on the future operations of the dam is required now, Sharaki explained. The present and future operations of the GERD require draining water throughout the year either through the turbines to generate electricity or via the flood gates if the turbines are not operating.
The reservoir is refilled during the rainy season from July to September.
“Any talks should focus on the rules that should govern the future operations of the dam and the annual filling of the reservoir,” he told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Salah Halima, vice-president of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, agreed with Sharaki that diplomacy and negotiations is the most useful approach. Addis Ababa’s unilateral approach poses genuine dangers to Egypt and Sudan, especially in times of drought and prolonged drought, he told the Weekly.
The other option that Egypt has, Halima explained, is Washington’s mediation in a serious round of negotiations to reach a legally binding agreement on the future filling and operations of the GERD within a definite time frame.
The possibility of the US intervening to resolve the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia on the GERD was brought up by US President Donald Trump, who told reporters last month that his administration is “going to have that [issue] resolved very quickly.”
“While Trump’s proposal to intervene in the dispute over the GERD may appear as a positive step to resolve the issue, it has raised questions over what the US wants in return,” Halima noted.
The US could want concessions from Egypt on other issues where Cairo has taken an unwavering stand, he said, referring to Egypt’s firm opposition to the displacement of the Palestinians from Gaza.
In 2019, Trump during his first term in office secured a deal on the GERD that the three countries agreed on. But on the signing day, Ethiopia declined to attend without stating its reasons.
Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy Habtamu Itefa said in an interview with Ethiopian television this week that the dam is complete and that his country is preparing for a great inauguration ceremony to celebrate that “historic achievement”.
He said that the dam will not cause any harm to Egypt and Sudan and that on the contrary it would “organise” the flow of water.
That statement came a few weeks after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the completion of the GERD, saying that the official inauguration would be held this month.
Ahmed not only stated that the dam poses no threat to Egypt but also extended a provocative invitation to Egypt and Sudan to attend the dam’s opening ceremony.
Sharaki challenged the repeated Ethiopian claim that the dam has not caused any harm to Egypt. “The Ethiopian dam has stored more than 60 billion cubic metres [bcm] in its reservoir over the last five years. This water would have otherwise reached the downstream countries, especially Egypt,” he said.
However, Sharaki added, people had not felt the impacts of this thanks to the water infrastructure policies that the state has adopted, including the reuse of agricultural drainage water, the expanded reliance on groundwater, desalination, and the reduction in water-intensive crops, especially rice.
The genuine concern now, according to Sharaki, is that Ethiopia may eventually decide to build more dams, which is a likely possibility, thus further affecting Egypt’s already vulnerable share of the River Nile.
And though the original purpose of the GERD was to generate electricity to help in Ethiopia’s development, so far that has not been achieved.
According to Sharaki, only six of the dam’s 13 turbines have been installed. Two were installed in February and August 2022, two in August 2024, and the last two were tested in February this year.
He said that it was not clear that all the turbines are fully operable, but the fact that the reservoir was nearly full before the start of the flooding season indicates that they are not. Water must pass through the turbines to generate electricity.
Ethiopia says the dam is essential for the country’s development and has repeatedly vowed not to harm downstream nations, but it has also declined to commit itself to an agreement.
In 2015, the three states signed the Declaration of Principles on the GERD, which was supposed to lead to another agreement on the rules that govern the filling and operations of the dam.
Numerous rounds of negotiation have been held since to reach that agreement.
In December 2023, Cairo announced the end of the negotiations on the dam, citing Ethiopia’s refusal to seriously engage on proposed legal or technical solutions.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 September, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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