The third round of negotiations between Iran and the US are scheduled to take place in Geneva on Thursday in talks that started in the Omani capital Muscat earlier this month.
Ahead of the scheduled meeting, Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security in Iran, was expected to arrive in Muscat to deliver Tehran’s response regarding the nuclear file.
According to a diplomatic source with insight into the negotiations, Iran will neither accept nor totally reject the demands put forward by the US. Larijani, he said, is set to offer a “counter-proposal” that offers “more guarantees on the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme” but does not bow to suspending the programme completely or permanently abandoning the right to enrich uranium.
He added that Larijani is expected to refuse the “Israeli-US demand” for Iran to dismantle its ballistic-missiles programme. Iran relied heavily on its long-range ballistic missiles in responding to Israeli aggression during the 12-day war in June last year.
“It is very much an open question how the US will react [to the Iranian counter-proposal], but what is certain is that Israel is doing everything it can to get the US to launch heavy strikes against Iran,” the source said.
He added that the Iranians are not exactly negotiating a deal, but they want to avoid a war that could be unpredictable in size and scope. “We will see if we get to Thursday without the beginning of a US strike or not,” he stated.
In press statements made this week, Iranian officials said that Iran is committed to negotiate but will not accept any plans that are forced on it and that it is set to defend itself in the case of war.
The statements were made as the American military build-up around Iran was increasing, with more countries calling on their nationals to leave Iran.
On Monday, the US started to pull diplomats out of its embassy in Lebanon. Hizbullah, though weakened due to successive Israeli strikes and assassinations, said it would not stay neutral if Iran were to come under US attack.
The evacuation came as US President Donald Trump said the Iranians should expect much heavier strikes than the ones the US conducted against the country last summer during the 12-day war.
Also on Monday, Samir Ragheb, a well-informed Egyptian military analyst, wrote on his X account that the issue is no longer whether the US will strike Iran but rather on the nature of the strikes and when they will start.
He added that it could be anytime between the end of February until 7 March.
“Clearly, we are worried about such a scenario, and clearly we can see that there are high chances of a US strike on Iran,” said an Egyptian official. Speaking on Monday, he added that Egypt is opposed to a strike on Iran and has been trying to avert it.
It is planning for possible repercussions “depending on the severity of the strike”, he said.
He spoke as President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi arrived in Jeddah on Monday for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman. A statement issued by the presidential press office said the talks will examine recent regional developments, “especially matters of relevance to regional stability and security”.
According to the Egyptian official, a US strike on Iran is “certainly a concern for regional stability from Egypt’s perspective.” However, he added that this is not the only concern that Egypt has.
Its list is significantly longer, as it includes the volatile ceasefire in Gaza, the ongoing tensions in Libya, the continuing war in Sudan, “with the many regional and international interventions there,” and the havoc around the Red Sea.
The official added that Egypt is apprehensive about statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday about the pursuit of a new axis to counter what he said had been “a Shia axis” and was now an “emerging Sunni axis”.
Netanyahu spoke as he announced the arrival of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Israel on Wednesday.
India has been showing interest in the region, especially after the 2022 establishment of the I2U2 group, which brings together India, Israel, the US, and the UAE to work on “joint investments and new initiatives in water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security.”
Over the past two years, the group has been consolidated, especially on the security, water, and intelligence fronts.
According to Egyptian sources, the issue is mainly about the Israeli vision for the region that would not include a Palestinian state, entail the annexation of most of the West Bank and continued control of most of Gaza, plan a wider and more strategic presence across East Africa, especially in the Nile Basin countries, and see an expanding presence, “visible or otherwise”, across the Red Sea.
According to these sources, speaking over the past few weeks, this is not a scenario that Egypt can reconcile itself with, especially in view of the fact that it entails the division of countries that are crucial to Egyptian strategic interests.
These include Somalia, with the Israeli recognition of the breakaway province of Somaliland, and Sudan, with the continued “direct and indirect” support for the ongoing war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the opposing Rapid Support Forces.
The sources agreed that these acts go against Egypt’s endeavours to bring stability to all these fronts and increase the chances of a wider regional upheaval at a particularly tense moment for the whole of the Middle East and East Africa.
On Monday, Chad announced its decision to close its borders with Sudan to avert growing penetration by the warring factions in Sudan.
“There is so much going in East Africa and the Red Sea that whatever Egypt announces or does not announce we will not stand idle,” said one of the sources. “Equally, we will not stand idle in the face of ongoing schemes to divide Arab states, especially those with strategic proximity to Egypt.”
“Egypt and Saudi Arabia see eye-to-eye on the need to work against the division of any Arab state,” a well-informed Egyptian source said. He added that they also agree on the need for stability in Gaza and for “a horizon to be secured for a Palestinian state”.
As two countries overlooking the Red Sea, he said, neither Egypt nor Saudi Arabia will allow the violation of the rights of countries overlooking it to decide its security regime.
President Al-Sisi and Bin Salman, according to a statement by the Presidential Press Office, underlined the need for de-escalation in the region and strengthening Arab unity. The statement added that the two leaders also emphasised the importance of non-interference in state sovereignty.
He added that there are “other regional players” who share the concerns of Egypt and Saudi Arabia and are working with both countries to try to counterbalance Israeli schemes “that can only add to regional instability.”
But Egypt is not looking to squabble with Israel,” he said. “We want to engage with everyone for the sake of regional stability.”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 February, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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