“We will not need to enter into a new programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) once the current arrangement concludes,” Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouli said recently, referring to Egypt’s IMF-supported economic reform programme which is expected to end by December this year.
His remarks reflect the government’s confidence in the economy’s ability to continue its reform path without relying on new financing programmes from the international institution.
Egypt’s current programme with the IMF, signed in December 2022, is a 46-month billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) that supports economic reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability.
The IMF funding, initially $3 billion, was expanded to $8 billion in 2024. Egypt has also had a separate arrangement with the IMF since March 2025 under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for $1.3 billion.
Madbouli’s statements come as Egypt approaches the completion of the seventh and penultimate review of its current IMF programme, raising the question of what will shape the economy once the programme ends.
Since signing the agreement with the IMF, Egypt has implemented a broad package of economic, monetary, and fiscal reforms. These have included exchange-rate liberalisation, strengthening the role of the private sector, expanding social-protection programmes, and introducing measures aimed at improving public finance efficiency and increasing the economy’s resilience to external shocks.
The successful completion of the programme would mean that Egypt has achieved the key reform targets agreed upon with the IMF, said Sarah Saada, a senior macroeconomic analyst at CI Capital.
Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, Saada said that reaching the finish line is less important than maintaining the same course after the agreement ends.
She explained that maintaining the current reform path would eliminate the need for a new IMF programme. The success of the reforms, she stressed, should not be measured solely by securing financing or passing periodic reviews, but by the state’s ability to institutionalise the policies and transform them into a sustainable economic framework.
Despite the positive indicators, experts believe that the post-IMF phase may be more sensitive than the implementation stage itself, as it will test the economy’s ability to maintain macroeconomic stability without oversight from the international institution.
Mohamed Anis, a member of the Egyptian Society for Political Economy, Statistics, and Legislation, stressed the importance of managing foreign-currency resources efficiently in the coming years.
He said that the most important lesson to be learned is the need to direct external borrowing towards activities capable of generating foreign-currency revenues.
Speaking to the Weekly, Anis said that “Egypt should not borrow a dollar unless that dollar will generate another dollar,” highlighting the importance of linking external borrowing to productive and export-oriented projects that can strengthen foreign-exchange earnings.
He added that the economy needs to avoid a growth model based on debt-financed investment, especially since a large portion of government investment is directed toward public projects that do not generate direct returns.
He pointed out that the state, for example, does not own companies operating in advanced technological fields such as artificial intelligence, nor major exporting companies that generate sustainable foreign-currency inflows.
According to Anis, one of the key benefits of IMF programmes is that they impose a framework of discipline on economic policies, providing foreign investors with greater confidence.
The real challenge after the programme ends is not exiting from under the IMF umbrella but maintaining the same policies that helped restore economic stability, he said.
Anis cited the pressures Egypt has faced during the Russia-Ukraine war, during which significant foreign investments have exited emerging markets. He noted that conditions during the current regional tensions have been different, as fiscal and monetary policies have been more disciplined. Egypt’s continued engagement under the IMF agreement has also helped limit the pace of foreign-capital outflows, he said.
Nevertheless, Anis warned against excessive optimism, noting that the economy still faces structural challenges that make it more vulnerable to external shocks compared with more diversified economies.
The Egyptian economy remains “relatively fragile even after the economic reforms,” he said, making continued caution in managing fiscal and monetary policies essential in the coming period.
Among the issues he considers crucial in the post-IMF phase is regional competitiveness. According to Anis, Egypt no longer operates in the same regional environment it did some years ago. Today, it faces strong competition from economies such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Morocco in attracting foreign investment and emerging industries.
He said that enhancing competitiveness requires accelerating administrative reforms, improving bureaucratic efficiency, and creating a more attractive business environment for both local and foreign investors.
Anis also stressed the importance of ensuring a level playing field among different economic actors, enabling the private sector to play a larger role in driving growth while preserving the state’s role in strategic activities that ensure market stability.
At the same time, he believes that state investments should focus more on sectors capable of generating direct and sustainable economic returns.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 June, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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