It has been a year of growing concerns over the alleged intervention of Moscow in the internal politics of both the US and the UK, and the debate over the possible Russian role in both echoed at a NATO summit meeting held in London in December.

However, the debate over the Russian role, whether explicit or implicit, has also increasingly been followed in the Middle East. In many parts of the region, Russia has been making a lot of noise, often enough at loggerheads with the US.

The most recent disagreement between Moscow and Washington took place in civil-war-wrecked Libya. 

In December, the US sent a clear message to the Russians that it was not going to tolerate their growing role in the oil-and-gas-rich North African country, especially not an on-the-ground presence.

“It has been quite some time now that the Americans have been sending messages to the Russians on Libya. The American unease with the Russian role in Libya has become more visible as the Americans have noticed that Russia has been really expanding its presence in Libya,” said one informed Libyan politician.

Last month, Libyan officials in the UN-recognised government of Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj said they had provided Washington with evidence regarding the “disrupting role” that Russia has been playing in Libya as it has supported their adversary Khalifa Haftar, the head of the country’s only unified military structure, dubbed the National Libyan Army.

Haftar has accused Al-Sarraj of receiving military support from Turkey and other countries.

Informed Cairo-based Western diplomats have throughout the year been talking about Russia’s playing a key military role in the war in Libya, particularly relating to military intelligence provided by Moscow to Haftar.

This then developed into direct military assistance, including the presence on the ground of forces employed by the Wagner Group, a private company of mercenaries that allegedly acts in Libya upon the nod from the Kremlin.

According to the same diplomats, there is no clear account of the number of Russian mercenaries in Libya, but they most likely count in the couple of thousands.

The Russian logistic assistance to Haftar is part of a wider frame of political support that Russia is offering to the Haftar camp. In his annual press conference on 20 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country is essentially working for a political solution in Libya. 

This is very much in line with Moscow’s policy of making deals “with strong military rulers, or potentially strong military rulers,” according to a former Arab diplomat who has served in the Russian capital

Meanwhile, according to the same Libyan politician, Moscow has never fully cut its links with the Al-Sarraj camp. “It keeps its channels open on that front too, even if the ties between Moscow and Al-Sarraj are not as close as the ties between Moscow and Haftar,” he said.

“The issue for Russia is not about Haftar or Al-Sarraj; it is about Libya. This is not just a country with a high oil and natural gas potential, but perhaps more significantly is a country in North Africa that overlooks the Mediterranean,” he said.

Arab and Western diplomats have been wary of the wish of Russia to regain its traditional footholds in the Arab world and the Mediterranean, particularly in Libya and Syria.

In September 2015, Russia initiated its military intervention in Syria at the request of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, who had lost control over two-thirds of the country in a war with the militant opposition that took over what was initially a peaceful call for democracy as part of the 2011 Arab Spring.

Since that date, the military role of Russia in Syria, alongside other Al-Assad allies, Iran and the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah, has expanded.

In the words of one foreign diplomat who has served extensively in Syria, “the Russians are not just a military ally on the ground in Syria. They are partners in the political decision-making in Syria.”

“They coordinate with the Iranians, and they pass messages from the Iranians to the Israelis and vice versa. Most recently, they organised with the Kurds in northern Syria and with the Turks who started a military operation in Syrian territory to dispel the Kurdish militant groups from near the Turkish border.”

 

RUSSIA IN SYRIA: The same diplomat said that Russia already has two military bases in Syria. 

“At least those are the ones that are confirmed. There might be more, at least one more that has not been announced, and this Russian military presence is a long-term presence, and everybody knows it,” he said.

In December, Russian forces in Syria entered Raqqa, at the north of the country, which had been liberated from IS by the US supported Syrian Democratic forces, to distribute food and assistance.

Moreover, Russia had prevented and thwarted aerial Israeli attacks against Iranian military shipments to Syria. 

The Russian presence in Syria is not just about strategic presence, Cairo-based European diplomats say. It is also about the oil reserves of the country.

“Middle East oil is a big interest for Russia; this is not just about Libya and Syria; it is about the entire Middle East,” said one.

The Russian intervention to help save Al-Assad allowed Moscow almost full control over this crucial Mediterranean country. However, as one Western diplomat in Cairo argued, “the Russians want more – more all across the Middle East.”

 Libya, he added, was perhaps the second-biggest prize that Moscow is currently entertaining, with the hope of a possible military base sometime down the road if Haftar emerges victorious out of the current military and political battles.

However, it is not the only other gain that Russian President Vladimir Putin is eyeing. According to diplomats who spoke on the situation across North Africa, Russia has been firmly reaching out to all the countries in the region, “more Algeria and Morocco than Tunis and Mauritania, but still the Russians are reaching out to everyone,” they said.

The argument is that the Americans have been gradually pulling out from the region and that Russia has been trying to fill the vacuum, first at the political level and then moving towards military and economic agreements.

North Africa might be the second-biggest Russian intervention after Syria in the region during 2019, but it is certainly not the only one. Russia has also been trying to expand its ties with Iraq, a former ally of Moscow and a strong ally of Iran until the outbreak of the recent wave of demonstrations in the latter country. 

Russia had also been reaching out to Jordan, more cautiously given the strong ties between the regime in Amman and Washington. Jordan has allowed members of the Libyan National Army to receive training on its territory involving the use of Russian arms.

Selling arms has been a key tool that Moscow has used to strengthen ties across the region. In 2019, Russia sold an advanced air-defence system to Turkey, a NATO member, despite the strong opposition of Washington which replied by denying Turkey long-established military training.

Russia is also considering other buyers for its arms, including Egypt, once a key client of the Russian arms industry but now very close to the US. Egyptian officials have been open about Cairo’s wish to diversify its arms purchases.

Russia has been offering military sales to the Arab Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two of the closest Gulf allies of the US and the strongest political adversaries of Iran, Russia’s closest regional ally.

Also this year, Russia held a first commercial exhibition in Bahrain. The objective was to promote Russian commodities to the interest of a high-spending GCC market.

During a visit to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh earlier this year, Putin prompted the rulers of both to consider military cooperation with his country. As Western diplomats argue, military cooperation with Russia comes with benefits that potential buyers of Russian arms do not get from the US, including unmonitored access to spying technology that can be used to serve home security agendas.

During the past year, according to Western diplomats, China has been successful in offering its services in this type of technology to several countries in the region. But Russia has also had its share of selling spying software to several Middle Eastern countries over comparable Chinese and at times Western technology.

Russia has been competing and at times winning in Africa against China, which now holds most African debt, and European countries with colonial histories and influence in the continent.

The access that some Arab countries, especially Egypt and Algeria, could give to Russia in Africa is important given the volume of trade and security cooperation that these two countries have with East and West Africa.

“There is something between the Arab capitals and Russia that is not there with China, being the long history of cooperation since the years of the Cold War when there was still the former USSR in alliance with most of the Arab states,” said the Arab diplomat who had served in Russia.

“Moreover, the Russians are willing to be there for their allies on the ground, and they are well-versed in Arab culture and mentality.”

 

RUSSIAN COOPERATION: Russia has spared no efforts to remind rulers across the region that when push came to shove during the 2011 Arab Spring the US turned its back on its closest regional allies.

Russia was opposed to the Arab Spring.

Meanwhile, Russia’s outreach to the region has included an expansion of its cultural missions and its cultural cooperation with several capitals. It is currently working to restore the monuments at Tadmor (Palmyra) in Syria that have been damaged due to the war. It is also offering its expertise to Saudi Arabia, which wants to restore some of its monuments. 

Moscow has hosted joint cultural events with several Arab countries. Earlier in the year, it hosted two Saudi visual artists who displayed their work at the Hermitage Museum in St Petersburg. 

Russia has been hosting a seven-day cultural exhibition of Egyptian arts as parts of a preparatory process for the celebration of Egyptian-Russian cultural relations.

Western diplomatic sources in Cairo argue that it would be naïve to dismiss the growing presence of Russia in the region or to ignore the US determination to resist giving more space to Russia in the Middle East.

The Libyan politician who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly said that the growing Russian influence over the military and political game in Libya had prompted an unprecedented American eagerness to engage with the leading Libyan players.

An Egyptian diplomat said that it was after the announcement of Moscow’s willingness to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia to resolve the conflict over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that the US finally decided to heed the Egyptian appeal for direct American intervention.

Obviously, the Egyptian diplomat argued, this is not the Cold War, but clearly there is considerable tension between the West and Russia. “The Middle East looks like it is going to be a growing part of this tension, be it over military sales, security and military cooperation, or even economic deals,” he said.

In its resistance to the growing Russian impact across the Middle East, the West is often counting on the help of European countries that used to be part of the Warsaw Pact.

“We keep reminding our Arab interlocutors that like in the 1966 cinema production ‘The Russians are coming’ the Russians can always disguise themselves or their interests until they get full control, and then it becomes very difficult to part with them,” said one Middle East-based diplomat from a former member of the Eastern Block. 

“And when the Russians stay, they eventually interfere in the sovereign affairs of other states as much as they can,” he added.

Israel, the same diplomat argued, is the only one country with which Russia has clearly defined boundaries, given the special Israel-US alliance. “But otherwise the Middle East is an open market that Russia is jockeying for.”

*A version of this article appears in print in the 26 December, 2019 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly under the title: The Russians are coming back