Though the rising tension between Russia and Ukraine may seem to be a long way away from the Middle East, the impact of a war between them would be strongly felt in the region. While the Ukraine crisis may look like a conflict between Russia and the West led by the US, its ramifications affect the world as a whole.
Even before any military escalation begins, international and regional positions are shifting. China used the Winter Olympics in Beijing to host Russian President Vladimir Putin, for example, along with the leaders of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar.
With the Ukraine crisis in the background and amid the rising rift between the West and some of its traditional partners, Chinese President Xi Jinping tried to garner the cooperation of some of those most at odds with the US or concerned at seeing it disengaging from their region.
During the Sino-Russian summit meeting in Beijing, a number of energy deals were signed to increase Russian oil and gas supplies to China, helping Russian companies like Roseneft and Gazprom to shift their exports away from Europe and the West in general. The deals should also help China to ensure it has the energy it needs to power its economy and lessen its reliance on imports from troubled sources like Iran.
The presence of three Arab leaders in Beijing earlier this month was also significant. Some commentators drew the conclusion that key states in the Middle East are trying to widen their options, rather than taking sides in the struggle over Ukraine.
A joint commentary by researchers at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) last week also concluded that the Ukraine crisis is having more of an impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region than anticipated.
They said that Russia might use the conflict to affect the current negotiations in Vienna to restore the Iran nuclear agreement between world powers and Tehran.
Russia has played a constructive role in the talks and has been working closely with Western actors to draw Iran back into compliance. “But the crisis in Ukraine could push Moscow towards the more disruptive approach of easing pressure on Tehran,” the researchers said.
“Iran may also feel that rising US-Russia tensions and higher oil prices give it breathing room and increase its leverage in the negotiations.”
Middle Eastern states are likely to be hedging their bets in the Ukraine crisis, the ECFR paper suggested, adding that the UAE will be wary of alienating Russia by aligning with the West. This consideration may also limit Riyadh’s willingness to use the crisis to try to seize some of Russia’s current share of the oil market.
However, the MENA region’s relations with the US and the West are unlikely to suffer major strain as a result of the crisis over Ukraine. One former British diplomat who has worked in the region told Al-Ahram Weekly that there was likely to be a “pragmatic” stand by the Arab countries.
“It is more a case of keeping all the doors open and diversifying foreign relations to serve national and regional interests rather than taking strong positions siding with this party or the other,” he said.
The Arab countries might also be in a better position to follow this course than other Middle Eastern countries like Turkey, Iran, or Israel.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself in a difficult position, since as a member of NATO, Turkey would be a de facto party to the conflict on the side of the West. However, Ankara cannot afford to fall out with Russia due to its economic reliance on cooperation with Moscow.
In 2015, a spat between Ankara and Moscow led to Russian tourists staying away from Turkish resorts, incurring heavy losses for Turkey’s economy.
One major side-effect of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine will be to exacerbate the energy crisis in Europe. The European countries rely heavily on natural gas imports from Russia that account for almost 40 per cent of their consumption.
The US has attempted to supplement European gas supplies with new energy sources, mainly US liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, this will not make up for the Russian gas supplies to European countries, and they are turning to other gas producers like Algeria and Qatar, hoping that they will be ready to increase supplies to Europe if the Russian taps are turned off.
Problems here include the fact that Qatar already has around 90 per cent of its production assigned to other customers via long-term supply contracts. Although it has spare capacity to produce gas for spot sale, this will not be sufficient to meet European demand.
Algeria would be keen to increase production and export more gas to Europe, but underinvestment in the sector will make it difficult to pump and transport much more. Algerian gas supplies to Spain were recently negatively affected by the closure of the Maghreb-Europe pipeline due to political tensions between Morocco and Algeria.
A war in Ukraine would also impact humanitarian crises in the MENA region, indirectly affecting areas of ongoing conflict.
A list of areas likely to be affected listed by the ECFR includes damaging ongoing regional stabilisation efforts in countries like Libya and Syria and prompting an increase in global energy and wheat prices that would hurt fragile states in the Levant and North Africa.
A possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and military conflict involving the US and Europe would lead to turmoil in the global markets. Oil and gas prices would shoot up, as would the prices of wheat, other grains, and other commodities.
According to Washington-based Middle East Institute fellow Cristian-Dan Tataru, an estimated 12 per cent of the total global grain trade passes through the Bosphorus every year, with many of these shipments heading to MENA countries.
Ukraine exports 95 per cent of its grain through the Black Sea, and more than 50 per cent of its wheat exports went to the MENA region in 2020.
“Half of Lebanon’s and 43 per cent of Libya’s wheat imports came from Ukraine. Egypt also relies heavily on imports from the Black Sea region,” Tataru wrote.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 February, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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