The Ukraine crisis has doubled fears of crop (especially wheat) shortages and inflation in many African countries, complicating the already difficult lives of hundreds of millions of Africans. Much like other countries, African states have seen food price hikes since 2020 due to the waves of drought in South America and Indonesia and increasing demand in China and India for wheat, corn and oil seeds, especially sunflower.
Now the Russia-Ukraine crisis, entering its fourth week, is making matters worse, since both countries are top wheat, corn and sunflower oil exporters. In 2020, Russia and Ukraine contributed respectively 18 and eight per cent of the world’s wheat as well 18 and 40 per cent of the world’s sunflower oil and, combined, 14 per cent of the world’s corn exports. African countries led by Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Tunisia, Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia are among the biggest importers from those two countries, and they have seen food price hikes in some cases starting before the crisis developed into war. With the closure of Ukrainian ports and freezing of Russian exports due to Western sanctions on Moscow, the situation is likely to grow even worse.
To remedy wheat shortages, the Sudanese may turn to a once traditional crop, which the middle class had long forgotten: millet, planted extensively in the centre of Sudan, which remains a staple outside the cities, where wheat has replaced it. In East Africa – Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia – 84 per cent of the wheat comes from abroad. Rwanda imports 92 per cent of its wheat from Russia; Sudan 86 per cent; Eritrea 79 per cent; Burundi 83 per cent; and Uganda 74 per cent. These countries import the rest of their wheat from Ukraine.
Civil War in Ethiopia and drought in central Somalia, southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya had already threatened the Horn of Africa with famine, and the Ukraine crisis may result in a repeat of the food shortages caused by the 2008 financial crisis there. According to the UN, the region already suffers one of the worst food insecurity crises in the world.
This is especially true of South Sudan, which gained autonomy in 2011, and endured a Civil War that killed more than 400,000 people, putting it on the brink of famine, along with northern Nigeria, Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen, and parts of eastern and northern Syria.
Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia have had ruthless jumps in food prices since 2020, while Nigeria – the most populous African country – has been suffering from terrorist attacks orchestrated by Boko Haram, which together with conflicts between farmers and herders has resulted in food insecurity.
But food is not the only relevant product. Russia is also the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and many African countries depend on it for their fuel needs. When the war broke out, the price of a barrel of oil jumped to over $100, reminding the world of oil prices that surged to $100 per barrel on the heels of the first Ukrainian crisis of 2014.
Many African countries, such as Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya have been witnessing sharp rises in oil prices since 2020, after the average price of a barrel of oil had plunged to $30. It is expected that oil in African countries will see debilitating price hikes, at least in the short-term. Oil- and gas-producing African countries, such as Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola, Mozambique, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea may have greater revenues in the immediate future, but the cost of transportation will rise.
While oil- and gas-producing African countries may be luckier than their neighbours, countries that produce tea, such as Kenya, coffee beans, such as Ethiopia, and fruits, such as South Africa, will see far more damages due to the Western sanctions on Russia which will no longer be able to import these products. Investments of South Africa in Russia, estimated at $5 billion, will be severely damaged. Meanwhile, Russia invests $23 billion in South Africa.
Egypt, which receives large numbers of Ukrainian and Russian tourists will also be economically impacted by the crisis.
Since its independence from the USSR, Ukraine has been a favourite destination for African and Arab students wishing to study medicine and engineering. Some 8,000 Moroccans, 4,000 Nigerians, and 3,500 Egyptians are studying in Ukraine, making 20 per cent of foreigners studying in Ukraine. Efforts to repatriate them are ongoing.
For a few years now, African countries have been buying arms from Russia at affordable prices. Weapons from the West are more expensive, and African countries are required to meet the conditions of the West in order to gain access to arms, such as: responding to human rights violations, fighting corruption, and instating international observers in countries that had gained their independence after bitter and bloody conflicts with European colonisers. But the Soviet Union remained in Africa from the early 1960s to the late 1980s and Russia has managed to retain allies in Algeria and South Africa and with Libya until the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
With the rise of China, the Asian giant entered the continent as an economic and development partner from the late 1980s, but it has not been a weapons supplier. Moscow became a source of food and weapons, and a school for the education of middle-class engineers and doctors. Beijing and Moscow thus play complementary roles in Africa. Indeed the Africans reinvented the Cold War to settle their conflicts. Mali kicked out the French forces and started coordinating with Russia. Sudan buys Russian weapons, instead of European and American ones.
Africa’s strong countries, those who are ruled by the military, and those facing terrorism have sided with Moscow. This couldn’t be more evident than during the UNGA in which the vote against the “Russian invasion of Ukraine” was held. About half the African members ranged between abstention (16 countries) and absence (seven countries), in addition to the opposition of Eritrea, which joined the five countries of Russia, Belarus, Syria and North Korea.
Supporters opted for a moderate approach, maybe to change their positions later on if need be, such as Libya that voted against Russia due to Prime Minister Abdel-Hamid Al-Dbeiba’s position. However, Libya will stand with Russia under the new government of Fathi Bashagha.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 March, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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