Dozens of governments fear meeting a similar fate to that of Sri Lanka, where the Rajapaksa dynasty has fallen after almost two decades in power.
Although numerous developed and developing countries are witnessing mass protests, the signing of the UN-sponsored wheat export agreement between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul has calmed global fears of a continuing surge in prices.
The majority of countries are promoting the agreement to calm popular fears and quell demonstrations, saying prices will not rise any further with the approaching availability of Russian wheat and Ukrainian cooking oil.
In Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Uganda and other African countries, the media is reporting that they are safe from an impending famine because their regimes stand with Russia, but not against the West that depends on Moscow for its energy sources.
However, the recent Russian attack on Odessa Port is raising fears around the globe that the wheat export agreement will not go through, which will lead to further price hikes, something the world’s poor may not be able to endure.
Before 100 days of mass protest were through, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was driven from office and his fortified presidential mansion, constructed by the British two centuries ago, was taken over by demonstrators.
In 2004, Mahinda Rajapaksa, the elder brother of Gotabaya, became prime minister, before winning the presidential race the following year and appointing his brother Gotabaya, a former army officer, defence minister.
Mahinda immediately began to escalate the Civil War against the Hindu Tamil minority, coming out victorious at the end of his first term, and turning in the eyes of hardline Sinhalese Buddhist groups into a national hero. The Rajapaksas, with conservative religious leanings, soon owned large swathes of agricultural land and assumed governmental posts, leading to accusations of corruption and nepotism later on.
The Rajapaksa government adopted a conservative economic policy, which was based on decreasing the wealthy classes’ taxes to appease them, contributing to the aggravation of the budget deficit and the reduction of state resources.
With the negative effects of climate change and plummeting tourism crucial to the tropical island’s economy, the country’s conditions began to deteriorate despite the ideological propaganda of Buddhist groups, whom the government encouraged to bully Hindu, Muslim, and Christian minorities.
The Rajapaksa government relied on Chinese investments in an attempt to take advantage of the competition between its largest neighbour India and India’s greatest rival.
However, Chinese investments did little to help Sri Lanka’s depleted budget. Rajapaksa’s government quickly ran out of the foreign exchange reserves needed to pay for food imports. Food, medicine and energy prices surged by more than 80 per cent in the past year while inflation reached 50 per cent.
When the protests broke out the Rajapaksas fell off their throne, while Gotabaya fled to the Maldives, a Muslim nation that depends on tourism almost entirely, which in turn suffers a 100 per cent GDP debt and conditions that could affect stability.
The Maldives is not the only Muslim country threatened by protests that could destroy stability. Pakistan too has suffered a 90 per cent surge in fuel prices for a few months, while inflation surpassed 21 per cent – the highest in 13 years.
Pakistan’s political conditions are critical, too, particularly following the ouster of prime minister Imran Khan, the comeback of the powerful Sharif family thanks to Islamist groups, as well as the tensions mounting in Afghanistan, rendering Pakistan on the verge of turmoil while demonstrations have been flooding the streets over the past month.
To the west of Pakistan, Iran is seeing semi-weekly protests due to deteriorating economic and environmental conditions after the government reduced subsidies and raised the prices of wheat, cooking oil, and dairy products.
In Bangladesh, which is close both to Sri Lanka and Pakistan, inflation rose to eight per cent and could increase further with an unprecedented rise in global energy prices.
Further to the west, Laos’ debt is estimated at 88 per cent of GDP and its neighbour Myanmar is seeing protests since the military coup that toppled state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi.
Then there is Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia, and Haiti, all of which suffer from extreme poverty, food insecurity, and an unprecedented rise in the prices of all commodities.
The UN has warned that Afghanistan, South Sudan, Yemen, northern Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Somalia may fall into the abyss of famine, which could reach its peak in the Horn of Africa, where it threatens nearly 30 million people.
In the Arab world, Lebanon’s protests have not lost their momentum, mainly because the prices of food, fuel, and medicines have reached levels unprecedented since the Civil War ended in 1989. Lebanon imports most of its wheat and cooking oil, and buys all of its oil and gas from Egypt.
Lebanon’s political circle is accused of corruption causing the near-bankruptcy of the state and the inability of small depositors to withdraw their money from banks, which are subject to investigation by a committee that has not reached a conclusion thus far – much like the committee looking into the explosion of the Port of Beirut.
In Tunisia, where the conflict between President Kais Saied and the Ennahda movement (Tunisia’s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood) persists, the economic situation is worsening. The largest union in the country, the General Labour Union, started organising protests on 11 May.
Tunisia imports half of its wheat and nearly two-thirds of its cooking oil, the majority of its fuel, and a significant part of its pharmaceutical needs, which pushed prices even higher. This is also coupled by the government’s inability to achieve any economic progress since the 2010-11 Revolution.
Meanwhile, the Sudanese pound has lost one third of its value against the dollar, pushing prices higher at a time of political turmoil since the military takeover of October 2021.
Conditions are not so different in Mali, Guinea Conakry, and Burkina Faso, where military coups did not save the countries from misfortune. Fuel prices in Conakry have risen by more than 20 per cent since the start of the year, sparking protests in early June. In Burkina Faso, food prices have increased by more than 60 per cent, and the country continues to spiral down since the fall of president Blaise Compaoré in 2014, following a 27-year rule. Mali is one of the poorest countries in the world, which saw an Islamist separatist movement in 2013-14.
Kenya has been witnessing protests on and off since 17 May, due to the soaring prices of food, while nurses and workers at Zimbabwe’s hospitals are demonstrating due to dire conditions. The government offered to increase their wages by 100 per cent but they refused because inflation has exceeded 130 per cent in Zimbabwe.
In Latin America’s Argentina, a G20 member, farmers are organising protests due to a 60 per cent rise in inflation and the depreciation of the peso against the dollar, falling from 239 pesos per dollar to 280, before settling at 250. Meanwhile the Argentinean Central Bank’s official rate stands at the threshold of 132 pesos per dollar.
Chile also saw student demonstrations, with the national currency falling to a record 90 pesos against the dollar. In Peru, the army deployed along the highways after being closed by farmers who demonstrated against the surging prices of fuel, on which their agricultural equipment run. In Ecuador, people demonstrated a few times against rising prices in the past two months.
The European continent is not without trouble, either. Spain’s truckers protested against rising fuel prices, like their counterparts in South Korea, who ended an eight-day strike last month.
British railway workers went on a strike that paralysed the country to demand better wages to keep pace with the new rises in energy and food prices. Conservative MPs demanded that poor Britons should learn to cook instead of relying on popular kitchens that provide free food. Many activists decried the statement, saying people eat at popular kitchens not because they don’t know how to cook but due to the rising prices of commodities.
Belgium’s labour unions demanded that its members should organise strikes to force the government to negotiate an increase in their wages that are no longer enough to make ends meet.
Greece’s inflation hit nine per cent, which is the highest rate recorded in the past 27 years, prompting wide student, farmer, and labour protests across Athens. Similar events took place in Cyprus in May and June.
Millions of Americans are enduring unprecedented hikes in oil prices, which will probably affect the chances of the Democratic Party in the mid-term elections in November. This was the main reason behind Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East after two years in office.
Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan impasse is far from over. Taking regimes down doesn’t solve a country’s problems, and protests are like poison for states that depend on tourism and services to earn hard currencies and for labourers and craftsmen that earn their wages on a daily basis.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 28 July, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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