Each of the heads of Israel’s two right wing blocs, Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, the current prime minister, is eager to tip the balance in his favour and end the current stalemate ahead of the imminent elections. On the eve of the fifth round of elections in Israel in less than four years, opinion polls show that both fronts are neck and neck in the Knesset seats they are expected to win.

Although Netanyahu’s hardline right bloc is tipped to gain the upper hand, its rival which is now known as the “anyone but Netanyahu” bloc is making moves to improve its chances too.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc includes parties from the right, left, and centre left, is in alliance with one Arab political party, and has almost secured the support of other Arab parties. These odd bedfellows have come together to make sure Netanyahu does not return to power in Israel.

Netanyahu’s group includes five political parties, the largest of which is his own. Its rival bloc includes six. The Joint Arab List is deeply divided and has not yet made up its mind – although there are strong predictions that it will join the ranks of Lapid.

The leaders of the two blocs are vying for support from 61 out of 120 Knesset seats. Recent opinion polls show that Netanyahu’s bloc will probably win 60 seats, while Lapid’s will win 54. The Arab Joint List led by Ayman Oudeh and Ahmed Al-Tibi, which is predicted to win four seats, has not yet decided which side to support.

The front opposed to Netanyahu is facing many divisions among its own member parties, who are competing over the same voter base. This will splinter votes further, and may prevent some parties from winning the quorum needed to enter the Knesset.

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, who is a key figure in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, tried to block Netanyahu’s advance by forming a coalition that includes his own Kahol Lavan Party, Gideon Saar’s New Hope Party, as well as former military chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot. Including Eizenkot in the alliance is aimed at grabbing votes that would otherwise go to Netanyahu’s bloc, since Eizenkot is popular in right-wing circles.

However, the three-way alliance known as the “State Camp” will probably only win 11-13 Knesset seats, which will be a failure since the three came together to compete for the office of prime minister and form the next government.

Another obstacle facing Netanyahu’s opponents is deep fractures among Arab parties in Israel, which have negatively impacted their chances of winning Knesset seats and splintered votes. This makes it easier for Netanyahu to undercut his opponents and boost his own chances. The National Democratic Alliance (Balad) led by Sami Abu Shehadeh left the Joint List, an alliance of Arab political parties in Israel. This means that Arab parties in Israel will contest the elections as three entities: the Joint List led by Oudeh and Tibi; the United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas; and Abu Shehadeh’s Balad Party.

Opinion polls project that the United List and Joint List will each win four seats, while Balad will win none. What is more concerning, however, is that opinion polls show that Arab Israelis have lost faith in all these parties because they failed to represent them. These frustrations have impacted predictions of voter turnout by Arab Israelis in the upcoming elections.

One survey conducted in Israel revealed that only 32 per cent of Arab voters will go to the polls in the next elections, which is a sharp drop from 40 per cent in previous surveys. In the 2019 elections when Arab party lists were united, they won 15 Knesset seats, which was the highest representation of Arab parties in Israel. However, divisions before the previous elections resulted in them winning ten seats only. It is predicted they will win only eight seats in the next round.

Lapid realises that fewer Arab voters could weaken him and his bloc, which is why he sent several envoys to hold public meetings in Arab communities to increase voter participation and ensure Knesset seats for Arab parties, which are likely to support him in the elections.

According to Israeli media, Lapid’s envoys warned Arabs in Israel that if they do not go out and vote then Netanyahu and his extremist right-wing government will have a better chance of returning to power, which would hurt Arab communities.

Nonetheless, efforts by Netanyahu and Lapid to get ahead of each other and increase their chances of forming a stable government have had little success, according to the survey, which shows that 42 per cent of Israelis believe there will be a sixth round of elections, and that the upcoming elections will not resolve the ongoing political crisis. Meanwhile, only 31 per cent believe a new government will be formed after the elections, which reflects the level of disappointment among Israelis who believe Israeli politicians are scrambling for their own interests and not to serve their constituents.

In the last days of his tenure, Lapid is trying to accomplish and promote achievements to use as political ammunition, such as statements that he can throw a wrench in US progress on the nuclear deal with Iran or help Israel succeed in deterring the Islamic Jihad during military confrontations in August.

Lapid also tried to lure Arab voters by declaring his support for a two-state solution. Finally, he is trying to conclude an agreement to demarcate maritime borders with Lebanon, under which Israel will reap billions of dollars from gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea.

Netanyahu, who has become a thorn in the side of the political regime in Israel, is waging a fierce media war against Lapid to undermine these achievements. However, right-wing parties, especially the Likud Party, are considering axing Netanyahu if he fails to form a government after the elections, senior party officials told The Times of Israel. But Israeli officials doubt that right-wing parties will ever agree on a strong alternative candidate, especially since Netanyahu has prepared for such a possibility and managed to eliminate the centres of power competing with him inside the Likud Party.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 13 October, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.