Tensions have escalated significantly in the West Bank and the occupied city of Jerusalem, especially in Nablus and Jenin in the north.
Since the beginning of October, two Israeli soldiers were killed in two separate attacks, and 14 Palestinians were martyred at the hands of the Israeli army in the same region.
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Defence Minister Benny Gantz and other senior security officials met on Sunday to discuss launching a wide military operation in the West Bank against armed Palestinian groups which have become very active recently.
According to Israeli analysts, Lapid is embarrassed by losing control over the growing numbers of armed groups in the West Bank, especially since his rivals in the upcoming November elections are accusing him of weakness in confronting attacks by Palestinians.
However, an extensive military operation in the West Bank may be an “uncalculated risk”, especially since the outcome is not guaranteed. It could lead to military intervention by armed Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip, which have publicly hinted at undertaking such an intervention during a recent conference in Gaza City.
According to analysis published in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Tel Aviv would rather the PA took the lead in confronting these armed groups by containing them and persuading them to join Palestinian security agencies, in return for wages and economic incentives.
According to the newspaper, Israeli analysts believe Israel is worried that a military operation would lead to Palestinian masses joining confrontations in the West Bank, noting that despite escalating military operations, so far there are no indications there will be a massive Intifada against Israel.
Among several militias in the West Bank, Areen Al-Ousoud (or the Lions’ Den) has risen to the top as a dominant armed group which recently formed there. The group has claimed responsibility for several attacks against the Israeli army, becoming a significant phenomenon which prompted the Israeli army to mobilise and deal with it.
Samir Awad, a Palestinian political analyst, said what is unique about this group is that it is not affiliated with any Palestinian organisation. This means it is not susceptible to the current polarised atmosphere on the Palestinian street resulting from Palestinian divisions.
“Most of those involved in this armed movement, which is very popular and accepted on the Palestinian street, are young people who are skilled at using the Internet to send out their message,” Awad told Al-Ahram Weekly.
The Dayan Research Centre at Tel Aviv University agrees with these factors, indicating that most Lions’ Den members who have been attacking the Israeli army recently, and some of whom were killed, were born in the 2000s (Generation Z). It stated that the Internet skills of this group create a greater existential presence for them.
In a study on this group’s activities, the Dayan Centre asserted, “the group only has a few dozen members, but has wide influence on the Palestinian street, especially among youth.”
To cut down this group’s growing popularity, Israel has asked Tik Tok to block the group’s account which Lions’ Den uses to publish details about its operations and the martyrs who carry out attacks against the Israeli army. Israel also put pressure on Telegram to block the group’s account, but it was denied.
According to the report, this armed group poses a continuous threat to army forces and Israeli settlers, and could inspire copycats at other locations in the West Bank. Namely, young people who yearn for non-institutional activism that would undermine the already fragile position of the PA.
The greatest threat of all, the report continued, is that Hamas and Islamic Jihad (and their Iranian backers) might sponsor these groups, supplying them with funds, logistical and military assistance, and directing their activities. This would once again allow Hamas to promote itself in the West Bank, while maintaining peace and economic stability in Gaza.
Alongside the Lions’ Den, several other armed groups such as the Jenin Brigade and Nablus Brigade are also active, and all include members from Islamic Jihad and Fatah. Israel sees a serious threat in increasing cooperation between the two factions in the West Bank, even though there are serious disputes between them at the level of political leadership. There are also indicators that some members of the Palestinian security apparatus or those close to them have joined these groups, which is a serious security concern for Israel.
Awad believes that increased armed operations in the West Bank and the greater numbers of the youth becoming involved in them indicates a lack of confidence in the ability of Palestinians to make progress through the political process. It also reflects the frustration of Palestinians with Israel’s demolition of all paths to a political solution.
It shows that Israel’s management of the West Bank has failed. Tel Aviv was relying on providing economic incentives to Palestinians there, in the hope that this would contribute to increased security stability in that area, while Israel forges ahead with creating a new reality on the ground through continued settlement building and Judiasation of Jerusalem.
Escalating confrontations in Jerusalem are a new challenge through which Israel is addressing serious threats. It has already put the Shuafat Refugee Camp in north Jerusalem under siege as it searches for a Palestinian who shot at a military barricade and killed an Israeli soldier.
Although Israel has threatened military operations in the West Bank to create a greater battlefield to confront armed groups, Israeli security agencies cannot create the same battlefield in occupied Jerusalem out of fear that this would trigger retaliatory reactions by Jerusalem residents who are in direct contact with settlers, and have greater freedom of movement in Israel because they hold Israeli identity cards.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 20 October, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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