The 25th Knesset elections in Israel in early November resulted in a comeback for the leader of the right-wing bloc and Likud Party Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu and his radical-right allies won enough seats in parliament to give him a viable chance to form the next Israeli government, giving rise to fears about how the next Israeli cabinet will handle a plethora of issues.

Netanyahu’s alliance includes extremist figures on the right, such as Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich who lead the Religious Zionism Bloc, and other figures who adopt hardline positions on several issues. Most notably, there is the issue of how to deal with the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is facing an existential crisis due to repeated Israeli incursions into West Bank cities, the imposition of new rules on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the Judeification and settlement building in Occupied Jerusalem.

Although the incumbent coalition cabinet formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid did not take practical steps in favour of the Palestinians, at least it adopted balanced positions on some issues. These include Lapid’s declaration that he supports a two-state solution.

While none of these positions translated into anything tangible on the ground paving the way to the return of the peace process between the PA and Israel, they did give Palestinians hope and they were supported by the administration of US President Joe Biden, which has always championed a two-state solution.

The new government coalition led by Netanyahu has adamantly rejected a two-state solution with the Palestinians. Netanyahu prides himself on successfully dismantling the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords between the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and Israel, which created the PA. Under Netanyahu, Israel has also reneged on its commitments in the appendices of the accords, such as the Paris Protocol.

Israeli analysts warn that there will be a backsliding in relations with the Palestinians to a one-state model instead of a two-state solution if Israeli policies towards the Palestinians continue in the same direction. This is especially in the light of the serious repercussions of measures taken by Israel that undermine the PA.

According to the Israel Hayom newspaper, maintaining the status quo of de facto self-rule in Palestine will largely depend on the existence of the PA and its institutions. If they disappear, this will tear down the current framework and once again require Israel to manage the daily lives of the Palestinians.

This could create the reality of one state that is neither Jewish nor democratic. As long as there is a policy of indecision on the matter, the factors that undermine the PA internally will gain momentum.

Among the most dangerous ideas adopted by key figures in Netanyahu’s anticipated government coalition that would re-ignite the conflict with the Palestinians are the attempts to change the status quo at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.

Right-wing heavyweights allied with Netanyahu want to spatially divide the mosque, in a similar way to what Israel succeeded in doing at the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron.

The second idea is pushing for the unilateral annexation of Palestinian land, which the PA asserts undercuts any chance in the future of the creation of a viable and geographically connected Palestinian state.

This weakens the PA internally, since many Palestinians believe it is pointless to return to the peace process with Israel because there is no viable solution for them.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohamed Shtayyeh said that the results of the Israeli elections were no surprise to the Palestinians, noting that “these elections did not bring a partner for peace.”

Shtayyeh called on the international community to urge Israel’s next prime minister to stand up and declare he is ready to end the occupation, end the conflict, and commit to a two-state solution based on international legitimacy.

According to political analyst Talal Okal, Netanyahu will apply his usual policy of aiming to remove the Palestinian cause from the global agenda and take advantage of key world countries being distracted by other serious regional and global challenges.

“Netanyahu has a domestic agenda that he must implement in order to keep the new government coalition intact, regardless of the internal and external challenges posed by keeping this coalition stable,” Okal said.

“Like Lapid, Netanyahu has nothing to offer the Palestinians due to electoral considerations in Israel,” he added, noting that Netanyahu’s priority will be to mend relations with the Biden administration in the US.

There have been warnings from various circles in the US against hardliner Ben Gvir joining the next Israeli cabinet. The US views him as a fuse that will re-ignite tensions in the region with the Palestinians and others, and officials said it would be difficult to deal with Ben Gvir if he is given a cabinet position.

However, it will take a political miracle for Netanyahu to convince Ben Gvir not to be part of the next Israeli government.

Okal said that Netanyahu is under pressure from his right-wing allies to avoid his cabinet collapsing and returning to the maelstrom of new elections and remaining in opposition. This will push Netanyahu to take more extremist positions on the Palestinian cause.

As well as the Palestinian issue, Netanyahu will have to deal with other complex matters such as the border demarcation agreement that the US mediated between the Israeli government and Lebanon to extract gas from the Mediterranean Sea.

Netanyahu has already said he will not honour the agreement if he becomes the next Israeli prime minister, saying he will work on “neutralising” it.

Netanyahu will also have to deal with the possible return of the US to the Iranian nuclear agreement, and he will have to deal with the Ukraine crisis that has been pushing the Palestinian issue off the top of his agenda.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 3 November, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.