When Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed last month to restore their diplomatic relations and work together to ease tensions in the Middle East, no one expected the speed with which they would have the ball rolling.

The Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, accompanied by a high-level security and economic delegation, is expected to visit Saudi Arabia in a few weeks following an invitation from the Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud. Negotiations to reopen diplomatic missions in Tehran and Riyadh and to name the new ambassadors are also in full swing.

Officials from the Iranian and Saudi foreign ministries held a technical meeting in Tehran this week to finalise details before the opening of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and the Iranian Embassy in Riyadh.

Seven years ago, after the execution of the Saudi Shia leader Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr, the Iranian government renamed the street where the Saudi Embassy is located in Tehran, Martyr Nimr Al-Nimr Street. However, this week the Sheikh Nimr Street sign had been removed and the old name, Pasdaran Street, was reinstated.

Talks in Tehran took place two days after the meeting between Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Beijing, the first in seven years, where the two regional powers vowed to bring security and stability to the Middle East.  Nonetheless, due to complex and thorny issues in Saudi-Iranian relations and the long proxy wars between them, some Western officials are skeptical that the current rapprochement steps will withstand the differences and conflicts of interest that could occur in issues including Yemen and Lebanon. Perhaps the biggest dilemma is the confidence deficit.

Relations between the two countries have gone through a long series of crises since 1979, and thus building trust will not be easy or quick. Previous attempts to normalise relations between the two countries during various Iranian administrations, from the government of the late Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani in the 1990s, and the government of former president Mohamed Khatami at the start of the millennium, all the way to the government of former president Hassan Rouhani, all failed and did not lead to a real improvement in relations.

Iranian officials are nevertheless optimistic that today’s endeavors will have better luck than those of the past three decades.

“In the past, Iran had to manoeuver to protect its national interests on the one hand and improve regional relations on the other hand in a regional dynamic controlled by America. This is not the case today, as the countries of the region draw their policies and define their interests regardless of America’s views. This is the new variable, and I believe that if Washington were as strong in the Middle East as it was in the past, this political breakthrough would not have been achieved between Riyadh and Tehran,” a former Iranian diplomat who worked in the Khatami administration told Al-Ahram Weekly.

“For Tehran, this positive dynamic in relations with our neighbours is not a tactic to buy time. Iran is serious about opening a new chapter in political, economic and strategic cooperation. We believe that when all countries in the region begin to reap the fruits of that rapprochement, there is no going back. Perhaps this is why Washington is dreading the possible success of the Iranian-Saudi reconciliation because it really could transform the region,” he added.

The US’ lukewarm welcome of the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran was evident. A few days ago, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns held talks in Saudi Arabia with his counterparts to discuss cooperation.

The details of the negotiations were not revealed, but they certainly touched on Chinese mediation, developments in relations between Riyadh and Tehran, and efforts to end the war in Yemen. It was notable that Burns’ visit was announced as Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister held talks with his Iranian counterpart in Beijing.

The sudden visit of the CIA director to Riyadh reflects America’s concern that it is being marginalised and bypassed in recent regional arrangements. The drop in US influence with Saudi Arabia was emphasised when OPEC Plus countries agreed this month to cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move that caused a rise in prices and infuriated the US administration which called the move “inadvisable”.

In a show of force, the US Navy deployed on Saturday a guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk missiles to the Gulf. Iran criticised the move as a provocation. But Iranian officials expect more provocations in the coming weeks, even American efforts to detonate the rapprochement between Iran and the Arab countries.

“America could lash out and try to sabotage the whole thing as it feels that the rug is being pulled from beneath its feet in the Middle East. To say that Washington is worried about the latest developments is an understatement,” said the Iranian diplomat.

The coming weeks and months could test the US sway in the Middle East as never before.  According to Iranian officials, the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia is only the beginning of a new chapter in regional relations. There is a political breakthrough on the horizon with Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain. Iran is keen on its efforts to succeed on those fronts too as it aims to rearrange the security structure of the region to terminate ideas such as the Arab NATO or any other military alliance against it.

The benefits will not only be external but also internal. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has come to realise that the internal challenges facing Iran are as serious as the external ones. The mass demonstrations in which hundreds of thousands of Iranians participated, and which have become very frequent, leaving to a deep rift between the wings of the Iranian regime, constitute a headache for Khamenei.

“Iran is facing an existential challenge. While no accurate polling is possible, the protests and substantial anecdotal evidence -- as well as my own experience in visiting the country in the past -- convince me that the system is facing its most serious threat. This is the result of a combination of factors including the profound alienation of young people from religious rule as well as the deteriorating economic situation,”  Barbara Slavin, a Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, told the Weekly.

As the internal situation is at a crossroads, there is a realisation that violence and repression are not long-term solutions. Thus, part of the Iranian authorities’ calculations is to ease internal tension and improve economic conditions, and this depends on better regional and international relations.

“Younger Iranians are heavily plugged into the outside world through social media and contacts with the diaspora. They know what is possible in the West and even in their own region and that they are missing out on personal freedom of expression as well as the possibility of prosperous and fulfilling careers. There is a growing progressive movement within Iran that is pushing for peaceful change.

“It may not succeed until Ayatollah Khamenei dies, but the desire for change is so widespread and profound that it will eventually succeed in my view. Even now, Iran is not a ‘totalitarian’ state like Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China. Many brave individuals speak up and reformist newspapers and journalists that continue to criticise government policies, including the foreign policy tilt to the East. Iran is too dynamic a society to be squelched indefinitely,” argued Slavin.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 13 April, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly