In the early hours of Tuesday morning, 40 Israeli warplanes and helicopters attacked Gaza in several waves, hitting homes and causing panic among residents. Early reports showed at least 13 Palestinians, including three commanders of the militant group Islamic Jihad, were killed in the air strikes. Meanwhile Israel officials are said to be preparing for days of fighting.
The Islamic Jihad too has vowed revenge and Gaza-based militants are expected to respond with rocket fire into Israel. In fact, military escalation continues in the Gaza Strip after the death of detainee Khedr Adnan in an Israeli jail after a 86-day hunger strike. Rising tensions in the West Bank and Gaza, coincide with warnings of more escalation due to threats by armed Palestinian factions in Gaza that they will respond to Israeli settlers planning a new “Flags March” in occupied Jerusalem.
The parade takes place on 18 May every year and involves tens of thousands of religious Jews and extremist right-wing political parties mark the anniversary of the occupation of Jerusaelm. The march usually passes through the Old City in Jerusalem, and participants provoke and clash with Jerusalem residents.
On Friday, the Israeli army killed three Palestinians in Nablus in the northern West Bank, claiming they were the perpetrators of an operation in Al-Aghwar that killed two Israeli women. The following day, two Palestinians were killed in a fight with the army at Tolkaram Refugee Camp in the West Bank. Since the beginning of the year, 110 Palestinians have been martyred at the hands of the Israeli army, including 20 children and three women, according to the latest statistics of the Palestinian Health Ministry.
In the Gaza Strip, within hours of the news of Adnan’s death, Palestinian factions fired more than 110 rockets and artillery shells into Israeli-occupied towns neighbouring Gaza. Israel responded by targeting a large number of military locations belonging to armed Palestinian factions in Gaza. Egyptian and UN efforts managed to reach a ceasefire, even though neither side officially declared it. However, more trouble is brewing as Israel enforces harsher measures against Palestinian prisoners, especially the Secretary-General of the Popular Front Ahmed Saadat, under the pretext that he coordinated with armed elements in the West Bank to form armed cells to attack Israelis.
Israel’s Channel 14 quoted a senior politician as saying: “The decision to enter direct confrontations with armed Palestinian factions in Gaza has been taken. Discussions revolve around timing.”
The source said discussions are underway at security institutions between two key approaches. First, a surprise attack in the Gaza Strip that could begin by assassinating one or more officials simultaneously, would be followed by launching military confrontations. However, this would be of questionable legitimacy. Secondly, waiting for an attack from Gaza targeting Israel would enable Israel to respond in a forceful manner to tip the scales. This would have more global legitimacy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing growing criticism of his response to rocket attacks from Gaza, which have increased since he came back to power five months ago. Netanyahu’s partners view Israel’s response as modest, undermining what they describe as Israel’s “deterrence strategy” against armed Palestinian groups.
Ibrahim Abrash, a political analyst, stated: “Escalation in Gaza and the West Bank continues relentlessly, especially in light of stalled peace talks. We are in a state of no-war, no-peace, which leaves all options open. Under the shadow of Netanyahu’s right-wing government, there are serious efforts for escalation on the Israeli side, especially by ministers of extremist right-wing parties.”
Abrash told Al-Ahram Weekly that “what is currently preventing large-scale confrontations is the domestic situation inside Israel, and events on the regional and international stage. Within a few months from now, there will be broad confrontations between Israel on one side, and the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on the other. The security calm is temporary and at any moment a major war against Gaza could break out to end the wave of rockets.”
He continued that Netanyahu’s government is facing many crises, but the security issue is the most pressing and could lead to its downfall if it does not work on restoring what Israelis call deterrence power, especially since right-wing parties reached power through promises on security issues.
Abrash asserted that harsher measures against prisoners and tensions inside Israeli jails will serve as an impetus to hasten a confrontation, increase armed operations in the West Bank and the firing of rockets from Gaza. The absence of political prospects will sustain continued security tensions.
As to whether the Arab League could re-propose its peace initiative, with the support of the Palestinian president, Abrash – who is a former member of the Palestinian government – believes Israel will reject the idea since it refuses to return to negotiations altogether. “In recent years, Israel has worked on decimating the Arab peace initiative, and destroying any chance of implementing it,” he argued.
Aleef Sabagh, a political analyst, agrees that dissent within Netanyahu’s cabinet, especially recent quarrels between him and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, is a factor in whether or not another military confrontation between Palestinians and the Israeli army is possible.
Sabagh told the Weekly: “The dispute between Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir will never be resolved unless the former agrees to the latter’s demands in order to prevent the collapse of the government coalition. This means it is more likely that a broader and greater military confrontation will take place.”
While military escalation continues in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israel is trying to impose a new status quo in occupied Jerusalem and at Al-Aqsa Mosque. This is another factor in rising tensions between Palestinians and Israelis.
Hamas is holding the Israeli government responsible for continued actions by extremist groups of holding religious lessons near the prayer area of Bab Al-Rahma at Al-Aqsa Mosque. Hamas believes this is part of a plan to impose temporal and spatial separation as a precursor for changing the features and identity of Al-Aqsa.
Israel also approved the construction of 1,200 settlement units in the West Bank and occupied Jerusalem, while Egypt, Jordan and the US are trying to spearhead efforts to bring the Palestinian Authority and Israel back to the negotiating table as a continuation of meetings in Aqaba, Jordan, and Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
A version of this article appears in print in the 11 May, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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