Hamas’ major operation Al-Aqsa Flood, which took the world by surprise in the early hours of Saturday morning, and Israel’s escalating military retaliation have left the region and the world on edge.
On Sunday, US carrier Gerald Ford was heading for the Mediterranean, part of the American show of support to Israel following the Hamas attack, and Egyptian diplomacy was racing to contain the conflict which has already killed and wounded thousands, including civilian Palestinians, Hamas operatives, and Israeli soldiers and settlers.
With shared borders with the Gaza Strip, Egypt was particularly put on alert especially as the confrontation started to escalate with possible concern over an unauthorised massive entry of Palestinians from Gaza into Rafah, particularly in view of the repeated Israeli refusal to allow the entry of Egyptian aid, food, and energy into Gaza at a time when the Israeli army continued its heavy shelling of the Strip.
Speaking on Tuesday, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi warned that “the current escalation is very worrying and could have disturbing consequences for the stability of the region.” In an indirect but clear message President Al-Sisi indicated that Egypt will not allow its borders be violated. “Protecting Egypt’s national security is my top priority and ultimate responsibility,” he said.
“We have to make sure that things do not move from bad to worse,” said an Egyptian official. He argued that the American decision to send military reinforcements to the region is not just about showing support to Israel but “about discouraging a possible deterioration of the situation if Israel decided to conduct a ground invasion of Gaza or if Hizbullah decided to get heavily involved in the conflict.”
The source added that Cairo is consulting with regional and international players over a high-level meeting that Egypt could host to push for an end to the conflict. “It is still a very elementary idea, but we have to move to secure regional and international support because there is no telling how things will unfold in the coming days.”
The source spoke on Monday, the third day of a conflict that started at around 6am Saturday when Hamas launched thousands of rockets into southern Israel before breaching the security fence built by Israel to blockade Gaza.
On Sunday Israel declared a state of war, launching heavy air attacks on the densely populated Strip, expanding the assault on Monday.
“What we will do to our enemies in the coming days will reverberate for generations,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday, speaking hours after his defence minister ordered a total siege of the Gaza Strip.
“We want to spare the Palestinians the bloodshed and we want to protect civilians on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides,” President Al-Sisi said on Tuesday.
“The situation could easily get out of hand with a devastating humanitarian crisis in Gaza as Netanyahu attempts to wash away the shame inflicted upon him with the blood of Palestinians,” the Egyptian source said. He added that Israel is unlikely to be blamed for any crimes it commits in Gaza given much of the world views its actions as self-defence.
On Saturday, US President Joe Biden said that the US stands fully behind Israel’s right to defend itself and promised Washington’s full support. Two days later, the US joined Britain, France, Germany, and Italy in issuing a statement of solidarity with Israel.
In Cairo, sources see a host of disturbing scenarios, including a total collapse of services in Gaza amid brutal Israeli aerial attacks or, worse still, a ground invasion that could prompt thousands of Palestinians to try to force their way across the border into Egypt.
On Monday evening, as the situation was fast deteriorating, Egypt sent a clear message to Hamas leaders warning of any “attempt to violate Egypt’s borders”.
“We told them in no uncertain terms that Egypt will not allow its borders to be compromised and will not get involved in an irrational military excursion that was conducted with no calculations for the possible consequences,” said the source. “We have seen over and over again that without a political process things can ignite in a flash.”
In 2009, thousands of Palestinians forced their way across the border from Gaza to escape Israeli attacks.
Cairo and other Arab capitals have issued statements calling for an end to the conflict and the launch of a political process. While Egypt’s official statement stopped short of blaming Hamas for starting a conflict that could provide Israel with an excuse to decimate Gaza, other Arab capitals were less circumspect.
“It is very clear that Hamas has no sympathy within official quarters in many Arab capitals, but for us the question is more layered,” the source said. He explained that Egypt is keen to keep lines of communication open with Hamas and other resistance movements to help negotiate a ceasefire “in days, not weeks”. One problem, he added, is that Cairo is uncertain about the level of coordination between the newer generation of Hamas leaders in Gaza and the group’s traditional leadership.
“This is a big part of the dilemma today. We are not sure who is running the show and who can order a halt to the operation on the Palestinian side. And while we want both sides to agree a ceasefire, we know Israel will not agree before it hits a few big targets.”
In his remarks on Tuesday, President Al-Sisi said that he is conducting talks and consultations in pursuit of an exit from the current crisis.
According to his spokesperson, President Al-Sisi held phone calls with Mohamed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey, King Abdullah of Jordan, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss de-escalation.
Speaking off the record, officials say Egypt has also spoken with the leaders of Hamas and other resistance factions in Gaza, and with Israel, and neither side of the conflict is exhibiting an appetite for a ceasefire or immediate engagement in a possible prisoner swap deal. Not that anyone expects a swap to be a simple matter. For over three years, Egypt has been working on a deal to exchange two Israeli soldiers held by Hamas for a few hundred of the Palestinians Israel has imprisoned. Nor is it lost on anyone that it took Egypt five years of patient negotiation to secure the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in return for over 1,000 Palestinians.
“We are racing against time to convince both sides that it is in their best interest to consider the beginning of a prisoner swap which would be the most effective way to start a gradual de-escalation,” said one Egyptian official. “Such indirect talks” could also help prevent the expansion of the conflict.
Like other regional and international capitals, Cairo is keeping a close watch on the Israel-Lebanon front. Hizbullah has warned that in case of an Israeli ground offensive on Gaza it will join the conflict. Despite repeated appeals, Monday did see a limited confrontation resulting in the deaths of seven members of Hizbullah and the wounding of six Israeli soldiers. Israeli authorities have instructed citizens living close to the border with Lebanon to leave until further notice.
Some Cairo-based foreign diplomats have already raised questions about a possible connection between Hizbullah and the launch of Al-Aqsa Flood on Saturday, arguing that the operation could suggest Hamas operatives had received some kind of Hizbullah training.
While Hizbullah is widely considered to be an Iranian tool, Tehran has distanced itself from Al-Aqsa Flood. And though Hamas maintains a close relationship — though not as close as its sister resistance movement Islamic Jihad — with Iran, it does not coordinate all its movements with Tehran.
“We are not sure what will happen next on the Lebanon-Israel front. We doubt that Netanyahu will want two fronts open, one in the south with Hamas and one in the north with Hizbullah,” said the Egyptian official. He cautioned, however, that “given the very loose dynamics of the moment it is hard to predict what is around the corner.”
One thing is clear, he argued. The ramifications of Hamas’ operation Al-Aqsa Flood and Israel’s counter-operation Iron Sword must be contained as soon as possible.
“We are aware that Israel has sustained considerable harm, but we fear that Palestinians in Gaza will suffer a lot more,” he said.
“Gaza has not recovered from the damage inflicted by Israel’s attacks in 2021, or from the destruction sustained in previous rounds of conflict. It cannot absorb any more devastation.”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 October, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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