The recent attacks by the Yemeni Ansarullah (Houthi) against ships in the Red Sea bound for or coming from Israel have presented an unprecedented challenge to navigation. The Houthis have stated that these attacks, which have also targeted US warships, are in response to the Israeli military operations against Gaza and that they would end the moment Israel ends these operations.

The actions have sent tremors across global trading networks. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended their operations in the Red Sea as of 15 December. As Houthi attacks escalated, other shipping companies diverted their shipping via the Cape of Good Hope.

The sudden disruption in global food supply chains caused sudden spikes in food and commodity prices due to shipping delays and added shipping costs. The same applies to energy prices. Brent crude futures shot up as major oil companies, such as British Petroleum, temporarily suspended shipments through the Red Sea.

The rise in shipping costs due to tensions in the Red Sea will affect consumers globally, according to several experts in Egypt. While the Cape of Good Hope route around South Africa cuts out transit fees, which adds to the profit side for shipping companies, a considerable added distance will cause delays in the arrival of shipments and consequent fees and penalties, as well as other adverse repercussions. Consumers, naturally, will end up bearing the brunt of the extra costs, which are likely to continue to rise as long as tensions in the Red Sea continue.

About 12 per cent of world trade, or an estimated $1 trillion worth of goods, passes through the Bab Al-Mandab-Red Sea-Suez Canal route every year. That same strategic maritime highway linking the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean facilitates 30 per cent of global container traffic. The need to come up with an alternative route would entail high-cost risks for world trade and the global economy in general.

On 19 December, in response to the challenge posed by the Yemeni-based militia, the US launched Prosperity Guardian, a ten-nation US-led security initiative to stop the attacks, protect maritime traffic, and reassure shipping companies that their vessels will be safe when they return to the Red Sea route.

The Pentagon is “engaged with industry on a near-daily basis to gauge needs and provide reassurance that the international community is there to help with safe passage,” a US Defence Department spokesperson for the Middle East and Africa said on 21 December in response to reporters’ questions.

Many observers have questioned the American initiative’s feasibility and chances of success. The Houthi rocket attacks against Israel-bound ships have, if anything, increased since the 19 December. More significantly, Washington’s initiative met a very feeble response from the Arab region. Apart from Bahrain, home to a US naval support base, no major Arab naval power has joined it.

Although Washington invited all 38 members of the Combined Maritime Forces, or CMF, a US-led maritime security coalition in the Middle East, to take part, only nine have signed up: Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Seychelles, and the UK. There also seems to be some confusion surrounding the arrangements. Although the Biden administration said that a European force would be taking part in the operation, the Netherlands, Norway, and Denmark signalled to the White House that they would not be sending warships to the Red Sea, though they would send other types of naval vessels to Bahrain. According to Western and Arab reports, France and Italy were reluctant to join. Spain too subsequently changed its mind. On 23 December, Madrid announced that it would not take part in the Prosperity Guardian coalition and proposed, instead, a different mission that would be specifically dedicated to protecting commercial maritime traffic.

Washington’s knee-jerk recourse to naval muscle has further militarised the crisis in the Red Sea. It added to this a package of sanctions, announced on 28 December, intended to cut off Houthi funding sources. The sanctions target individuals and entities in Yemen and in Turkey. Many analysts believe that the sanctions will simply fuel the tensions in the Red Sea and that not only will the prosperity guardians fail to definitively curb the Yemeni militia’s threats to maritime traffic, but also further destabilise the Red Sea region, causing even graver repercussions for global trade and the shipping industry.

Ultimately, Washington’s unquestioning embrace of the Israeli narrative and its unreserved moral and military support for Israel and its operations in Gaza have doomed the coalition project in advance. To most countries in the region and the world it is obvious that Israel’s systematic crimes in Gaza are the source of the problem. They have created a fertile environment for the type of responses that the Houthis are carrying out in the Red Sea and for which the Houthis are rewarded by growing popularity in the Arab and Islamic region. Meanwhile, hostility and resentment mount towards Israel and its Western backers. It is no coincidence that the attacks against US bases in Syria and Iraq are increasing in tandem with the widening gulf between Washington and its regional allies against the backdrop of Israel’s war on Gaza.

Clearly the Prosperity Guardian operation carries the seeds of its own demise. In the end, the project may merely showcase the US’ inability to stop the escalation in the Red Sea, specifically in the vicinity of the strategically and economically critical Bab Al-Mandab. Furthermore, Washington’s insistence on raising the stick against Israel’s opponents while giving Israel a free hand to bombard Palestinian civilians in Gaza instead of prioritising a political solution only incentivises the Houthis’ military offensives. More generally, it aggravates a climate conducive to further militarising other crises in the Middle East.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly