Tensions between Iran and its proxies in the Middle East and the US, Israel, and their allies are rising to boiling point, and while neither Tehran and its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” nor the US and Israel want a regional war, the risk exists for at least two reasons.
The first is that multiple fronts could flare up suddenly and without warning.
Since the start of the Israeli war on Gaza, the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah and Israel have exchanged missile fire into each other’s territory. The Houthi group in Yemen has also attacked commercial ships heading to Israeli ports affecting global trade in the Red Sea, and there have also been missile attacks against US military bases in Iraq and Syria from pro-Iranian militias.
So far, these fronts have not developed into a regional war, but this could be unavoidable in 2024, especially on the Lebanese and Yemeni fronts.
The second reason that could turn the current skirmishes into a wider regional war is changing calculations of the course of the Israeli war on Gaza.
Thus far, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not been able to achieve his declared military goals in Gaza, among them the elimination of Hamas leaders, the obliteration of its military capabilities and infrastructure, and the reaching of a regional and international understanding regarding the future of Gaza the day after the war.
This has left Netanyahu desperate to make tangible achievements on the ground, and if he is unable to do this in Gaza, he may try to open a new front in Lebanon or even with Iran in order to redirect the attention of Israeli public opinion.
Likewise, Iran and its allies may pave the way for a broader regional confrontation if they feel that Israel will continue its war on Gaza in order to displace hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
The danger of things getting increasingly out of control has become apparent during the past few days. Israeli officials have warned that the situation in northern Israel is reaching a point of no return, stating that if Hizbullah continues its attacks inside Israel, this could lead to a strong military response, including the bombing of Lebanon and a ground operation on the Lebanese-Israeli border to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
This is a scenario that could force the US Biden administration to engage militarily in the region.
What could increase the danger is the fact that Israeli officials are now putting Iran left, right, and centre of the current escalation in the region. “The evil empire of Iran must be brought down,” former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece on Thursday.
“The US and Israel must set the clear goal of bringing down Iran’s evil regime. Not only is this possible, it is vital for the safety and security of the Middle East – and the entire civilised world,” he wrote.
There has also been escalation in the Red Sea, where for the first time since the start of the war the US has destroyed a boat belonging to the Houthis, killing and wounding several people.
The attack came after the formation of an international force to protect navigation in the Red Sea from attacks by the Houthis, who have hijacked several cargo ships in the Red Sea and prevented them from heading to Israeli ports in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.
In a statement, US Central Command said Washington had “every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran.”
Washington has moved two aircraft carriers and their accompanying strike groups to the Middle East as US bases in Syria and Iraq came under attacks from Iran’s proxies. Iran insists that its regional allies, whether the Houthis in Yemen, Hizbullah in Lebanon, or Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, operate independently.
In a call between British Foreign Minister David Cameron and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Sunday, Cameron warned Iran of the danger of regional conflict and the need to ensure maritime security.
“I made clear that Iran shares responsibility for preventing these attacks, given their long-standing support to the Houthis,” Cameron said, adding that the attacks “threaten innocent lives and the global economy”.
Iran’s state media quoted Amirabdollahian as saying that “the Israeli regime cannot be allowed to commit massacres of women and children and genocide in Gaza and set the region on fire, while the stopping of a Zionist ship in the Red Sea is seen as endangering the security of this economic waterway.”
He condemned the “West’s double standards” towards Gaza and Ukraine and the “silence of certain Western governments regarding crimes committed by the Israeli regime against Palestinians,” which have led to the killing of almost 22,000 people in Gaza.
Escalation has also been evident on the Syrian front, and an Israeli airstrike outside the Syrian capital Damascus last week killed a senior figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Sayyed Razi Mousavi, who was serving as a military adviser.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that the killing of Mousavi would in no way save the “wicked and fake Zionist regime from annihilation”.
However, the escalating tensions do not inevitably mean a regional war. No one wants a large-scale war, least of all Iran.
“There is logic in Iran flexing its muscles and demonstrating the strength of its allies. What Tehran is seeking is not a military confrontation between itself and Washington and Tel Aviv, but rather the opposite,” a former Iranian diplomat in London told Al-Ahram Weekly.
“Some accuse the Iranian government of madness because it risks a confrontation with America and Israel while suffering from an economic crisis and internal political polarisation. But in my opinion, there is a method to this madness. Escalation on all these fronts at the same time would likely push the American administration to try to prevent the outbreak of war in the Middle East by curbing the Israeli campaign against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip,” he said.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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