Gaza: A Ramadan truce?

Dina Ezzat , Sunday 17 Mar 2024

There are conflicting reports on progress towards the long-awaited Gaza truce.

Humanitarian aid is airdropped in Gaza as starvation seems almost inevitable (photo: AFP)
Humanitarian aid is airdropped in Gaza as starvation seems almost inevitable (photo: AFP)

 

By mid-week, mediators were still hard at work pushing for a Ramadan truce. Two Egyptian sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly independently during the first half of the week shared conflicting assessments of the state of progress in talks which were supposed to have included a delegation from Israel. The Israeli negotiators, however, failed to show up.

According to the first source, “some progress has been made and things are moving.” The second source, who is perhaps not as close to the talks, said “progress achieved so far is not enough to secure the beginning of a truce before the first day of Ramadan.”

According to the first source, progress includes Hamas consent for a sequel of truces prior to the ceasefire and compromises over the list of names of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails to be released. Israel, “under a lot of American and European pressure”, has agreed to multiple entry points for humanitarian aid and promised to avoid any provocative acts in the vicinity of Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan.

“Work is ongoing, and we are trying hard to get to a truce on the eve of Ramadan,” the source said.

According to the second source, sticking points requiring more time include: security management of the situation in Gaza during the truce; the scope and level of the Israeli army’s presence during the truce; details of the possible return of Palestinians to northern Gaza ahead of Israeli ground operations in Rafah and the number and names of Hamas militant leaders that Israel wants out of Gaza.

“Judging by the fact that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu declined to send the Israeli delegation to Cairo as planned for this week’s talks, and judging by the lack of flexibility that the Israeli delegation demonstrated in Doha during talks last week, it is hard to see how the gaps can be bridged in less than a week,” said the source.

Last week, the first source shared a cautious forecast on the outcome of the sequence of talks that have been happening in Paris, Qatar, and Cairo. This week he continued to be cautious but was “more hopeful” that a truce could be agreed “by Ramadan”. There is growing pressure being applied by the US, greater flexibility from Hamas “and last, but not least, growing pressure on Netanyahu from Israeli society and from his own cabinet and [Likud] Party.”

US pressure on Netanyahu came into greater focus this week with statements from both US President Joe Biden and his vice Kamala Harris on the situation in Gaza following US participation of the airdropping of humanitarian aid. While Biden said that the aid delivered to Gaza is “nowhere near enough”, Harris said that what is happening in Gaza is “inhumane” and a six-week ceasefire is urgently needed.

Meanwhile, Ismail Haniyeh, chair of the Hamas political bureau, has been adopting a more reconciliatory line in his public statements. While sticking to Hamas’ right to decide the price Israel pays to secure the release of hostages held since 7 October, Haniyeh appears increasingly swayed by the need to give Palestinian civilians some respite from the savage onslaught they are facing.

A Cairo-based European diplomat said that Doha has been putting pressure on Haniyeh and other Hamas political leaders who enjoy Qatari hospitality to agree a truce. The diplomat said that Ankara, a close ally of Hamas, has shared the same advice with Hamas leaders. “I think it is safe to say that with the exception of Netanyahu and some of the hardliners in his government, at this point everyone — the Americans, the EU, Arab leaders, and the UN — wants a truce,” he said.

According to the first source, this new collective international and regional will — “which does not exclude Iran” — is helping the talks to move forward despite the hurdles that Netanyahu is placing in the way of any progress. Last week’s killing of close to 100 Palestinians, shot by the Israeli army while they were trying to access food aid, shocked the world and increased the level of pressure on Netanyahu to move towards a truce sooner rather than later, said the source.

Netanyahu is also facing growing pressure from the families of Israeli hostages to get them home sooner rather than later, and from the US administration, not just because of the changing tone of its political statements but by the messages it is sending to the Israeli population and Israel’s political society. Netanyahu was infuriated by a three-day visit that his political rival Benny Gantz made to Washington this week.

According to a Beirut-based Arab diplomat, “the concern today is that if pushed into a truce, Netanyahu might open a war on Lebanon.” The diplomat explained that his worries are more about Netanyahu’s political agenda than anything else and while Hizbullah clearly does not want a war with Israel, the increasing level of confrontation on the Lebanese border is of growing concern.

“It is clear that Netanyahu escalating tensions on the borders with Lebanon for a possible new phase of his open-ended wars is designed to ensure his own political survival,” said the diplomat. He added that it is hard to see how Israel can hold a general election, no matter what the public thinks of the performance of the government, when it is in a state of war.

The current Israeli government’s term expires in two years and last month Netanyahu said that he is determined his government complete its time in office. In the assessment of several diplomats who have spoken to the Weekly in recent days, Netanyahu’s only chance to “keep his job” is to “continue fighting” for at least a few more months. The same diplomats agree that should he find it impossible to resist international pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza, then he is likely to open up a new Lebanese front.

This week, Amos Hochstein, the US envoy to Lebanon, warned that the current escalation on the borders between Israel and Lebanon cannot be contained indefinitely while UN human rights chief Volker Turk expressed his own concerns over the escalation on Israel’s border with Lebanon.


* A version of this article appears in print in the 29 February, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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