While expecting “a tough 72 hours at least” following the start of the Israeli ground operation in Rafah in the early hours of Tuesday, informed Egyptian officials said the situation could move in any direction, including spinning completely out of control.

“We knew that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not going to drop the Rafah ground operation and part of the purpose of our pursuit of a ceasefire over the past few months was to make it harder for Netanyahu to start a bloodbath in Rafah,” said a source close to the indirect negotiations that Egypt, Qatar, and the US have been mediating between Israel and Hamas.

As Israeli tanks were taking control of the Palestinian side of the border at Rafah, the source said that the worst-case scenario was not inevitable.

“We are not giving up. We are still working with the Qataris and Americans to keep the Rafah operation as contained as possible. There is still a window of opportunity.”

According to this and other sources, mediators have made progress in defining the key points of a possible deal though it will take more work to get it past the line.

The sources argue that Netanyahu has been under intense domestic and international pressure, with some pushing for a Rafah ground invasion to fully eliminate Hamas and others pushing for a smaller incursion to avert a humanitarian tragedy that would be too embarrassing for the mediators, especially the US.

“In a few days, maybe by Sunday, Netanyahu can start to pull out his tanks from Rafah, spin whatever political and military victory he needs for internal political purposes, and move towards a deal to end the war which is already 90 per cent done,” said one of the sources.

“This means that instead of going for a full ground invasion that will come with an incredibly high humanitarian cost, Netanyahu could settle for a limited incursion and move towards a deal that would secure him political gains.”

Two key things Netanyahu will have to ensure, according to Cairo-based diplomatic sources, is the hand-over of all hostages — including the dead — and security arrangements that guarantee long-term suspension of all resistance operations, including the firing of rockets by Hamas or any other faction. Both are stipulated in all recent drafts of the ceasefire deal, including the one Hamas approved on 6 May.

“The issue now is what Israel is willing to give in return,” said the Egyptian source.

He explained that in exchange for the return of all hostages and a blanket halt to resistance operations “which will happen over a three-month period, more or less”, Israel needs to commit to ending the war — “we have seen different phrasings for this, including a ‘full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza’” — an end to restrictions on humanitarian and reconstruction materials entering Gaza and the synchronised release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

On Tuesday afternoon, Netanyahu sent a negotiating delegation to Cairo after having twice cancelled trips in the past two weeks. Egypt was expecting the simultaneous arrival of a high-level delegation from Hamas, senior Qatari officials, and the CIA Chief William Burns who has been shuttling between Cairo and Doha.

According to the Egyptian source, “talks are still on and we are hoping for a deal, maybe by next week.” He added that remaining gaps relate “to language rather than content”.

On Monday evening, Netanyahu had suggested otherwise. Speaking hours after Hamas informed the Egyptian and Qatari mediators of its acceptance of the last version of the deal, Netanyahu said that he could not work with the 5 May draft and claimed it differed from the version he had seen days earlier.

Sources close to the negotiations say Netanyahu was bluffing. “There are not that many discrepancies. Netanyahu knows this, but he has to pretend to be tough to the last minute. It’s all for internal consumption,” said one. He added that “it is highly unlikely that the kind of military operation Netanyahu is planning in Rafah will help free the hostages.”

“It has been seven months since the beginning of the war. Netanyahu is not getting anywhere with killing the leaders of Hamas or with getting the hostages back. He needs a deal for that,” said a second source.

He added that Biden also needs a deal given the harsh criticism he has been facing over the US administration’s unconditional support of Israel and its possible impact on the Democratic vote.

“The clock is ticking for Biden, which is why he suspended sending ammunition to Israel last week. He wants to ensure Netanyahu will agree to the contained operation in Rafah that Washington has been suggesting for the longest time.”

Most sources who spoke during the first 12 hours after the start of the Israeli operation sounded confident that Netanyahu will call back his troops from Rafah within two weeks at most. A few, however, were less confident.

One Cairo-based foreign diplomat said there are two scenarios for the Israeli operation in Gaza: one is a limited incursion of a week or so, the second a six-week long operation that would result in enormous civilian casualties, chaos on the border with Egypt and the possible elimination of some senior Hamas figures.

“While it is true that American pressure on Netanyahu has been increasing, if Netanyahu believes he can get some hostages back and kill Hamas military leaders with a longer military operation he will almost certainly opt to do so,” said the diplomat. “Never underestimate Netanyahu’s ability to manipulate or the impact of the ultra-orthodox and right-wing political constituency.”

With uncertainty still looming on Tuesday, appeals continued for a prompt end to the war. In Cairo, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the start of the operation and warning about its humanitarian consequences. US President Biden called Netanyahu on Tuesday afternoon to warn against a major operation. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell warned of a humanitarian crisis as a result of the offensive that came after “Hamas accepted and Israel rejected” a deal. UN Chief Antonio Guterres called on Israel to halt the offensive and open the Rafah crossing to allow the entry of humanitarian aid.

Humanitarian groups working in Gaza say that whether it is an incursion or an invasion, the Israeli operation in Gaza will push hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians into areas with virtually no resources, including food and water, and that there is barely enough food in Rafah to sustain the current population for more than 24 hours.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 9 May, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly