On 5 June, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant took a flight over the Gaza Strip and Israel’s northern border in a F-15 fighter jet, commenting that “the strikes and plumes of smoke from the Israeli attacks are clearly visible to the eye, both in the Gaza Strip and in the north of the country.
His plane landed before he noticed more smoke, but this time it was coming from the Israeli side of the border and the area near the northern community of Ramot Naftali where Hizbullah had attacked an Israeli Iron Dome Air Defence battery using an Iranian Almas (Diamond) missile, a version of the Israeli Spike missile.
The attack raised discussion over whether a real target had been hit or just a decoy. However, it showed that Hizbullah can launch precise attacks deep into Israel’s northern territory without Israel having the ability to intercept them.
Later the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Iran is trying to choke and encircle us, and we are fighting back directly and with its proxies.” Israel is “ready with an extremely powerful response to Hizbullah attacks,” he said.
According to the Israeli Alma Research and Education Centre, “throughout May 2024, Hizbullah carried out 325 attacks. The daily average was 10 per day, whereas in April Hizbullah carried out 238 attacks with an average of 7.8 per day” against Israel.
This escalation by Hizbullah was followed by brutal strikes by the Israeli Air Force on Southern Lebanon and Syria, which led to the death of Iranian General Saeed Abyar. Mohammad Jamshidi, deputy chief of staff to the Iranian president, said Iran had created “a new equation, and the era of strategic patience is over”.
Israel finished preparations for potential military action in the north of the country in April. According to the Israeli Channel 13 TV station, the Israeli army command has appointed Moshe “Chico” Tamir, the man who formulated the Israeli entry plan into Gaza, giving him responsibility for preparing several possible plans for ground operations in Lebanon, while drawing lessons from the fighting in the Gaza Strip.
A number of entry plans, including a limited one aimed at pushing Hizbullah eight to ten km from the border, have reportedly been drawn up.
Al-Ahram Weekly spoke to four experts to understand more about the stakes involved in northern Israel and Southern Lebanon, including French General François Chauvancy, an expert on military doctrine with a career that has spanned more than 40 years, first in the regular army and then in NATO, including in Lebanon, RAF Air Marshal Greg Bagwell, formerly the UK’s Joint Force Air Component commander for various military operations, Osman Basibuyuk, a former Turkish F-16 fighter pilot and aerial systems expert, and Mike Mihajlovic, a Serbian expert specialising in air defence systems.
Speaking of a possible Israeli ground campaign in Southern Lebanon, Chauvancy said that a “limited offensive by the Israeli army would have the objective of neutralising Hizbullah and its infiltration capabilities towards Israel and of repelling the possibility of its firing rockets or missiles, in particular anti-tank missiles, by making the Iron Dome, a short-range interception system, more effective and therefore able to neutralise the strikes.”
“If moving to a depth of 10 km into Southern Lebanon remains an objective for the Israeli army, this will remain subject to the topographical realities of the terrain. In any case, it would aim to establish a buffer zone that would allow the army to destroy any threats.”
“The operation would be limited so as not to relive the Israeli defeat in 2006, which had overly ambitious military objectives.”
According to many observers, Israel has prepared 12 brigades in three divisions, the 36th, 146th, and 98th, on its northern border, including the 89th commando and 7th and 188th armoured brigades, ready for a possible invasion.
“To execute the prospective invasion plan, Israeli intelligence has undoubtedly identified Hizbullah’s military sites and the positions of the Lebanese army,” Chauvancy said. “Commando actions upstream and then targeted strikes by artillery or the Air Force on Hizbullah targets will prepare the ground for armoured moves (tanks, infantry, and engineers).”
The Israeli army will first destroy all concrete structures and concentrations of forces before its advance. The second step will aim to deny enemy reinforcements during the movement of the Israeli ground forces and to use close air support to allow them to progress if resistance is strong.
Israel mostly relies on its Air Force to carry out remote strikes, especially to avoid harm coming to its soldiers.
According to an article in the US Journal of Strategic Studies discussing the 2006 Lebanon War, “in a discussion at the National Defence College, [Israeli Armed Forces – IAF] Chief Dan Halutz argued that many air operations were generally implemented without a land force, based on the worldview of Western society’s sensitivity to losses.”
This was the main reason behind the recent deal between the US and Israel that will provide the latter with 25 Lockheed Martin-made F-35 fighter jets, since Israel will also want to implement air operations in the imminent invasion of Lebanon.
Gallant commented on this deal that it “sends a powerful message to our enemies across the region.” Israel has focused on upgrading its air fleet for several decades, despite having improved versions of the F-16 and F-15. It has named the F-35 the Adir, or “the mighty one” in Hebrew.
According to Bagwell, “the F-35 is what is known as a fifth generation fighter, whereas F-15/16s are fourth generation. There are two significant advantages of a fifth generation aircraft: lower observability (or stealth) to make them more survivable in a hostile threat environment; and a more complete fusion of sensors that gives far greater situational awareness.”
“They are designed for the most complex and challenging tasks, which are probably aimed more at Iran than its proxies. Whilst weapons integration has been slow, they will eventually be capable of carrying the most advanced weapons and able to employ them to the maximum of their capability.”
Israeli F-35 pilots trained in the Red Flag exercises in the US last year on offensive operations inside areas protected from Integrated Air Defence (IAD) networks and enhanced with electronic warfare capabilities, in addition to participating in local exercises for the same purpose.
For Basibuyuk, its “advanced features give the F-35 aircraft the ability to operate in remote areas of enemy territory. Israel bought three squadrons of F-35 aircraft so that it could strike the capital of an enemy country in a possible conflict. However, we will not know the true performance of the F-35s until there is a battle of equal forces.”
Israel is clearly increasing its air strike capabilities in order to neutralise near and long range targets, as recently Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) introduced its new AIR-LORA ballistic missile, which has long range targeting for both above and beneath ground surface targets.
Mihajlovic said that the “F-35 is not a game changer in the Middle East equation, and it can’t face modern Integrated Air Defence on its own. It needs a whole echelon of support. It can bomb Lebanon or Gaza, but incursions in Syria are risky, and Iran is out of the equation.”
“Using an aero-ballistic missile like the LORA or previously the Rampage further extends Israel’s striking ability out of the Air Defence engagement zone, but that is nothing but making a dent in the integrated air defense system. Israel can’t fight without US and EU support. Despite all its fleet, it can’t sustain a hypothetical prolonged war.”
“Israel is flexing its muscles against Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and the Occupied Territories, but only for the distance strikes in which the F-35 doesn’t play any major role. The loss of just one plane would seriously damage the whole concept.”
Militarily, it is clear that the upcoming Israeli military operation in Southern Lebanon will be fraught with danger, despite the use of advanced technology and the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force.
Politically, the operation appears to be a new way for the Netanyahu government to distance itself from the Israeli public. The best solution to the unfolding tragedy in the region is diplomacy. But there are fears that the recent release of four Israeli hostages in Gaza may be used to boost the emphasis on military operations.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 13 June, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: