Millions of voters in the UK head to the polling stations on Thursday to choose a new parliament and government. Out of a population of 68 million, more than 48 million are eligible to vote. But voter turnout has been declining since the 1960s, mainly due to people losing faith in politics in general. Yet a high turnout is expected in this week’s general election.

Polls have been giving the opposition Labour Party a lead of around 20 points over the ruling Conservative Party, but surprises cannot be ruled out and polls have not been too accurate in recent years. The British people, like many in similar countries, vote mainly on issues that directly affect their lives. Cost of living is a major factor, together with the need to improve health, education and other basic services. But it is economics that generally decides the result of a general election, with foreign policy also playing some part.

It looks more likely that the Conservatives will lose the parliamentary majority they have enjoyed for 14 years to Labour, but whether or not this will be a landslide victory is not clear. In fact a hung parliament, with Labour securing a majority not large enough to form a government, remains a distinct possibility. Without an unequivocal majority, governments find it difficult to pass laws and policies in parliament.

The British economy came out of recession this year, which gives Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and PM Rishi Sunak’s incumbent government a much needed boost days before voting day. But most voters still support Labour and look forward to a government led by shadow PM Keir Starmer and shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The UK, it is felt, needs change, and that is the title of Labour’s election manifesto. The truth, however, is that few expect real change on the economy or other issues. Starmer’s Labour has been mirroring Conservative policies throughout the campaign. The party’s track record in dissolved parliaments makes them look like Tories in disguise, as some of the party’s left-wing members have described the current leadership.

A sticking issue in the National Health Service (NHS), for example, is doctors’ strikes. Conservative governments failed to reach a deal on pay and conditions that would put an end to strikes affecting people’s health needs. Labour promises to end strikes and meet the doctors half-way. But one NHS doctor told Al-Ahram Weekly they don’t think the Labour government plans to do much to address the matter. “It is all about money, and where will Starmer get the money?” they remarked.

Apart from the economy and domestic issues, a Labour win may be a protest vote against the Conservatives. But it seems that foreign policy would remain unchanged under Starmer. In fact, Labour is likely to lose votes in traditional Labour constituencies. Electioneering promises of change, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and recognition of a Palestinian state, may well be keyed down once the party is in office.

In its manifesto, Labour promised economic growth through encouraging foreign investment. That would require a foreign policy of building new relations with partners. Renegotiating Brexit with the EU might prove difficult with the political right rising rapidly in Europe. The long unfulfilled promise of a free trade agreement with the US would be hard for a Labour government to reach, and a Republican win in the US election in a few months’ time would further complicate it. Whether Biden stays in the American presidential race or drops out for another Democratic candidate, Trump is likely to win the November election, and he is unlikely to get on well with Starmer.

As for “the Gaza effect”, which dented Labour’s popularity, the party in government would probably backtrack on its election promises. Starmer is not expected to recognise a Palestinian state against Washington’s wishes, especially as he seeks better relations with Washington. Some commentators expect the war on Gaza to be a thorny issue for a ruling Labour Party, threatening more division in its ranks. Some even suggest fragmentation similar to that of the Conservatives, who have lost part of their support base to the far-right Reform Party. On the other hand, the Workers Party is attracting traditional Labour supporters to the left of the party leadership.

“Change” might be no more than a promise, as it is easier to make promises when in the opposition. Once the party is in government, reneging on its promises will be easily justified by claiming that actual challenges turn out to be more severe than anticipated.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly